VHM – Scheduled handovers support Q1 earnings; Wonder City boosts Q1 presales - Earnings Flash & Analyst Meeting Note
  • 2025-04-29T00:00:00
  • Company Research


  • VHM recorded Q1 2025 results with underlying property revenue (including business cooperation contracts (BCC) and bulk sale transactions recognized as financial income) of VND10.8tn (USD414mn; -58% QoQ and +140% YoY) and NPAT-MI of VND2.7tn (USD103mn; -77% QoQ and +204% YoY), mainly driven by the scheduled handovers at Ocean Park 2&3 and Royal Island.   

  • VHM’s Q1 2025 underlying property revenue and NPAT-MI complete 10% and 9% of our respective full-year forecasts. We foresee insignificant changes to our 2025F NPAT-MI forecast (pending a fuller review), as the Q1 earnings results are within our expectations and reflect the timing of scheduled handovers. 

  • VHM’s Q1 2025 contracted sales value was VND35tn (USD1.3bn; +143% QoQ and +116% YoY; 38% of our full-year forecast), with retail presales accounting for 62%. Q1 2025 contracted sales value results are consistent with the figures shared by management at the AGM on April 23 (see our VHM AGM Note).  

  • VHM’s end-Q1 2025 unbilled bookings amounted to VND120tn (USD4.6bn; +7% YoY) with bulk sales accounting for 51%.  

  • The newly launched Wonder City project contributed 80% of VHM’s Q1 2025 contracted sales.  In Q1 2025, Wonder City recorded total retail presales value of VND14.7tn (USD565mn), and bulk presales of VND13.4tn (USD515mn). 

  • On March 12, VHM first launched the low-rise component at the Wonder City project (formerly known as Dan Phuong or Wonder Park, Hanoi, total of 133 ha and 2,250 low-rise units) to retail buyers. The project saw positive absorption with 92% of the Hung Dong zone presold in the first four days and 70% of the Binh Minh zone presold on day one. 

  • 2025G presales guidance: Of the VND150–200tn total contracted sales guidance for 2025G (USD5.8-7.7bn; +44%-92% YoY), approximately half is projected to come from existing launched projects (Royal Island, Ocean Park 2&3, and Golden Avenue), while the remainder is expected from new projects across various provinces, including the newly-launched Wonder City and the company’s target of launching seven new projects (Quang Hanh - Quang Ninh Province, Green City - Long An, Golden City - Hai Phong, My Lam - Tuyen Quang, Lang Van - Da Nang, Green Paradise - Can Gio, and Apollo City – Quang Ninh) in 2025G (subject to market conditions). This target is higher than our 2025F contracted sales value forecast of VND93tn (USD3.6bn) for VHM, which we mainly attribute to our more conservative projections on bulk presales in 2025F, given limited disclosed information on the bulk presales pipeline.  

Figure 1: VHM’s Q1 2025 results  

VND bn  

Q1  
2024  

Q1  
2025  

YoY  

2025F  

Q1 as   
% of 2025F  

Vietcap’s comments on Q1 2025 results  

Net revenue  

8,211 

15,698 

91% 

88,930 

18% 

  

  • Residential sales  

4,085 

7,200 

76% 

66,780 

11% 

* VHM’s Q1 2025 underlying property revenue (including BCC and bulk sales transactions recognized as financial income) amounted to VND10.8tn (USD414mn; -58% QoQ and +140% YoY) with Ocean Park 2 contributing 41%, Royal Island - 33%, and Ocean Park 3 - 17%.  

  • Leasing and other services  

4,126 

8,498 

106% 

22,150 

38% 

* Mainly construction and leasing services.  

  

 

 

 

 

 

  

Gross profit  

1,774 

5,158 

191% 

30,695 

17% 

  

  • Residential sales  

1,163 

4,565 

292% 

28,116 

16% 

  

  • Leasing and other services  

611 

593 

-3% 

2,579 

23% 

  

  

 

 

 

 

 

  

SG&A expenses  

-912 

-2,105 

131% 

-6,879 

31% 

  

EBIT  

862 

3,053 

254% 

23,817 

13% 

  

 Financial income  

1,956 

4,640 

137% 

24,022 

19% 

  

  • BCC income (*)  

195 

1,408 

622% 

16,507 

9% 

* Mainly retail handovers at the Royal Island project.  

  • Other financial income  

1,761 

3,232 

84% 

7,515 

43% 

 

Financial expense  

-1,369 

-3,860 

182% 

-7,818 

49% 

 * The YoY increase in financial expense was due to a higher debt balance for project financing (total debt balance at end-Q1 2025 reached VND88tn/USD3.4bn, up 38% YoY). 

Other gain/loss  

-34 

4 

N.M. 

0 

N.M. 

  

PBT  

1,416 

3,839 

171% 

40,021 

10% 

  

PAT  

904 

2,652 

193% 

32,017 

8% 

  

NPAT-MI  

885 

2,689 

204% 

30,226 

9% 

* The Q1 2025 NPAT-MI was mainly driven by the scheduled handovers at Ocean Park 2&3 and Royal Island projects. 

  

 

 

 

 

 

  

Gross margin %  

21.6% 

32.9% 

 

34.5% 

 

  

  • Residential sales  

28.5% 

63.4% 

 

42.1% 

 

  

  • Leasing and other services  

14.8% 

7.0% 

 

11.6% 

 

  

SG&A as % sales  

11.1% 

13.4% 

 

7.7% 

 

  

EBIT margin %  

10.5% 

19.4% 

 

26.8% 

 

  

Effective tax rate %  

36.1% 

30.9% 

 

20.0% 

 

  

NPAT-MI margin %  

10.8% 

17.1% 

 

34.0% 

 

  

Source: VHM, Vietcap forecasts (last updated on February 21, 2025). Note: (*) Vingroup signed a business cooperation contract (BCC) with VHM to fully transfer the economic interest of real estate developments that are not injected into VHM due to the complexity of paperwork. Thus, VHM records all gains via financial income.  

 

Figure 2: VHM’s quarterly contracted sales results (VND tn) 

Source: VHM, Vietcap compilation 

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