We attended VHM’s annual general meeting (AGM) on April 23. 

* 2025 guidance: Shareholders approved management’s 2025 guidance with underlying revenue (including business cooperation contracts (BCC) and bulk sales transactions recognized as financial income) of VND180tn (USD6.9bn; +27% YoY) and NPAT of VND42tn (USD1.6bn; +20% YoY), which are 38% and 31% higher than our respective forecasts. VHM’s NPAT results in 2022/23/24 were equivalent to 97%/112%/100% of the respective guidance set at the beginning of each year. Our NPAT forecast is lower than the company’s 2025G guidance because of our more conservative projections for the recognition of new presales in 2025F. Nevertheless, we foresee insignificant changes to our 2025F earnings forecasts (2025F NPAT: VND32.0tn/USD1.2bn, -9% YoY; and NPAT-MI: VND30.2tn/USD1.2bn, -5% YoY), pending a fuller review.

* Distribution plan for 2024 retained earnings: Shareholders approved that the cumulative undistributed earnings as of end-2024 (after retaining VND5bn to the reserve fund as specified in the Charter of the company) will be used to invest in the company’s business operations.

VHM guides for the end-2024 unbilled backlog to contribute 40–45% to the company’s 2025G NPAT guidance. Per management, the key earnings contributions in 2025G NPAT at VND42tn (USD1.6bn; +20% YoY) will include 1) recognition of a large portion of unbilled bookings (VND94.2tn/USD3.6bn at end-2024) which will contribute 40-45% to 2025G NPAT, 2) recognition of new presales (including bulk sales) in 2025G contributing 45-50%, and 3) other services (i.e., construction services) contributing 10%.  We attribute the main difference between management’s earnings guidance vs our forecast (2025F NPAT: VND32.0tn/USD1.2bn, -9% YoY; and NPAT-MI: VND30.2tn/USD1.2bn, -5% YoY) primarily to the higher guided recognition of new presales relative to our projections while the expected recognition of unbilled bookings this year broadly aligns with our current forecast. 

VHM targets strong 2025G total contracted sales value at VND150-200tn (USD5.8-7.7bn; +44%-92% YoY), driven by expected new project launches, including recently-launched Wonder City (Hanoi; 133 ha with 2,300 low-rise and 600 condo units), Green City (Long An, Hau Nghia),   Golden City (Hai Phong, Duong Kinh), and Green Paradise (HCMC, Can Gio), along with continued presales at existing projects. This target is higher than our forecast of VND93tn (USD3.6bn; -10% YoY), which we mainly attribute to our more conservative projections on bulk presales in 2025F, given limited disclosed information on the bulk presales pipeline. Management stated at the AGM that VHM achieved a Q1 2025 contracted sales value of VND35tn (USD1.3bn; +145% QoQ and +116% YoY), largely driven by Wonder City (first retail launch of the low-rise component was in mid-March). 

Continuing domestic debt financing plan for project development: Since 2024, VHM has actively utilized corporate bonds for funding. In 2024, VHM issued a total of VND27tn (USD1.0bn) of domestic corporate bonds via private offering. Management updated that they will cancel the international bond issue plan that was previously approved by shareholders in November 2024 (up to USD500mn; maximum 5 years; non-convertible and unsecured bonds).

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