- We cut our target price (TP) for NT2 by 6.4% to VND20,600/share and maintain our OUTPERFORM rating, mainly due to our 13% lower aggregate 2025-29F reported NPAT-MI forecast (respective changes of -45%/+43%/-37%/-12%/-11%), which outweighs the positive impact from rolling our TP horizon forward to mid-2026. 

- Our lower aggregate reported NPAT is mainly driven by our (1) 4% aggregate sales volume cut and (2) 1% lower average 5Y ASP (driven by our 5% lower sector CGM prices, see our Thermal Sector Update, dated June 02, 2025); these factors together outweigh (3) our 4% lower 5Y gas price (driven by our lower Brent oil and FO prices forecasts as in our Energy Sector Report– April 2025). 

- We forecast NT2’s NPAT to bottom out in 2024 and jump to VND232bn (+2.8x YoY) in 2025F, primarily driven by 19% YoY sales volume growth.

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