We lower our 2025F power consumption growth projection to 5.5% YoY from 10.0% YoY previously, reflecting weaker-than-expected 4M 2025 demand growth of 3.7%, largely due to cooler weather compared to the heat-driven spike of 12.4% YoY in 4M 2024, per EVN. This comes despite the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) rising by 8.4% YoY in the first four months of 2025, accelerating from 6.0% in 4M 2024. The manufacturing and processing sector led this growth with a 10.1% YoY increase. 

We also lower our 2025–30F power consumption forecast by 7% on average, reflecting our reduced demand growth expectations of 5.5%/7.5%/9.0% for 2025/26/27F (vs 10.0% previously). However, we maintain our 10.0% YoY growth forecast for 2028–30F, based on our GDP growth rate assumption of 7.5% and our assumed 1.3x elasticity ratio between GDP and electricity demand (aligned with the 10-year historical average).

We cut our 2025 CGM price projection by 8% to VND1,290/kWh (-9% YoY), driven by a lower-than-expected 4M 2025 average CGM price of VND1,286/kWh (-18% YoY). We attribute the 4M CGM plunge YoY to: (1) a 28% YoY rise in low-cost hydropower output, while gas-fired generation fell 19% YoY; and (2) weaker-than-expected demand growth of 3.7% YoY vs EVN’s 9.0–10.7% target.

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