We attended IDC’s May 9 analyst meeting and our key takeaways are below: 

* IP land sales: IDC recorded 37.9 ha of IP land sales via contracts/MOUs in Q1 2025 (vs our 2025F forecast of 80 ha and company guidance of 123.5 ha). Sales by projects were 16.0 ha at Que Vo 2, 11.2 ha at Huu Thanh, 9.7 ha at Cau Nghin, and 0.9 ha at the Phu My 2 Expansion. Despite tariff concerns, IDC noted it has secured several deals in April 2024, citing its diversified land bank and continued tenant interest, with some large tenants only partially shifting production from Vietnam rather than completely withdrawing interest from the Vietnam market. 

* IP land handovers: IDC delivered 11 ha of IP land in Q1 2025, mainly from Cau Nghin and Huu Thanh IPs, all of which stemmed from contracts signed in 2024. We estimate the unbilled backlog at end-Q1 2025 at ~67 ha, excluding a 30-ha contract to Hyosung which is expected to be allocated annually rather than booked as a one-off. 

* Selling prices: Most of IDC’s IPs recorded increases in average selling price (ASP) YoY in Q1 2025. The end-Q1 2025 ASPs of Huu Thanh, Phu My 2, Phu My 2 Expansion, and Cau Nghin have increased to around USD168/sqm, USD137/sqm, USD139/sqm, and USD93/sqm (vs end-2024 ASP of around USD161/sqm, USD124/sqm, USD126mn, and USD81/sqm), respectively. Additionally, Que Vo 2 remained stable at USD150/sqm while IDC is targeting an ASP of around USD130/sqm for upcoming sales at Tan Phuoc 1. 

* Pipeline project development: IDC has received the land allocation decision for over 160 ha in the Vinh Quang IP phase 1 (Hai Phong; 226 ha of total site area) and expects to complete land clearance for this phase by June 2025. Meanwhile, it is currently awaiting approval for the compensation price at the Tan Phuoc 1 IP (Tien Giang; 470 ha of total site area). Additionally, IDC received investment approval for the Phu Long IP (Ninh Binh; 415 ha of total site area) in March 2025. We currently forecast for the Tan Phuoc 1 IP to start land sales by 2026F and for Vinh Quang IP to start from 2028F while the Phu Long IP has yet to be included into our forecasts.  

* Residential segment: For the remainder of 2025, residential revenue will primarily come from the unbilled portion (~0.73 ha) of commercial land sold to Aeon in the central residential expansion project in Long An. Additionally, IDC plans to commence construction at the Nhon Trach IP workers’ housing project of ~10 ha by end-2025G.  

* Expansion into port segment: IDC recently secured 100% ownership in the My Xuan port (~50 ha) near its My Xuan A IP in Ba Ria–Vung Tau. The port will accommodate vessels up to 30,000 DWT. IDC is currently in progress for infrastructure construction at the project and plans to put it into operations by 2026G. We have not yet factored this project in our forecast and valuation. 

* Overall, we anticipate insignificant changes to our 2025F IP land sales and handover forecasts, pending a fuller review. Please also refer to our May 8 Update Report on IDC for further details.