- We maintain our BUY rating for IDC but cut our target price by 21% to VND55,800/share. The downward revision primarily reflects our lowered assumptions for IP land sales and ASP growth during 2025–28F, mainly due to potential challenges from the recent US reciprocal tariff announcement and ongoing trade negotiations.

- We revise down our 2025/26/27F NPAT-MI forecasts by 26%/37%/39%, respectively, mainly because of our lower IP land sales/handover projections.

- For 2025F, we forecast NPAT-MI to decline 23% YoY to VND1.5tn (USD59mn), primarily due to a YoY lower backlog at end-2024 and subdued IP land sales expected for 2025F.

- For 2026F, we expect a 13% YoY recovery in NPAT-MI, supported by (1) an expected rebound in IP land sales, especially from southern IPs with more diversified and domestic-oriented FDI demand, and (2) expected sales launches from upcoming UA projects such as Huu Thanh UA.

- IDC is currently trading at a 1.3x 2025F adjusted P/B (based on our forecast), well below its 2Y median of 2.1x. Despite near-term headwinds (see pages 6-7 for tariff scenarios per our view), we believe this presents a compelling valuation, especially given IDC’s strong fundamentals: a large, cleared land bank (~500 ha ready for sale) in prime locations, and a diverse tenant base (such as Hyosung, Pepsico, Heineken, and Hoa Phat).

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