We increase our projection for BWE’s 2025-2029F aggregate volume by 1%. Despite Binh Duong Province missing its 2024 GRDP growth target, BWE still had solid water volume growth at 9% YoY. In 2024, BWE’s volume completed 101% of our forecast and management set its 2025 volume growth target at 10% YoY. As a result, we raise our aggregate volume forecast for BWE by 1% over the 2025-2029 period. We note that BWE’s 2024 volume outperformed TDM, mainly because of strong water consumption in Tan Hiep District and others rather than Di An District (TDM’s main area of operation).

We broadly maintain our projection for TDM’s aggregate volume. While TDM’s 2024 volume completed 100% of our forecast, management is concerned about water consumption recovery in Di An District and as a result, set a conservative target of 5% YoY growth for 2025. We therefore lower TDM’s volume in 2025-2026 but raise it for 2027-2029F, resulting in unchanged aggregate volume for the forecast period. In 2024, Bau Bang District’s volume grew 30% YoY and we believe water consumption in this district will continue to be the driver to strengthen TDM’s volume growth in the medium term.

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