• We attended VTP’s annual general meeting (AGM) in Hanoi on April 23, 2025.
• The AGM approved the company’s 2025 guidance including total revenue of VND21tn (USD825mn; +1% YoY) and NPAT of VND405bn (USD16mn; +6% YoY; 98% of our full-year forecast). VTP has missed its NPAT guidance by 15% on average over the past seven years.
• Shareholders approved a FY2024 cash dividend of VND1,081.5/share (1% yield).
• We see potential downside risks to our 2025F projection for VTP, while seeing potential upside to our forecasts from 2026F onward as we have not yet factored in the potential contribution of Viettel Lang Son Logistics Park, pending a more comprehensive review.

1. Delivery service segment:

* Long-term outlook: Management remains optimistic on long-term parcel volume growth, underpinned by robust expansion of e-commerce market across both platform-based and non-platform channels. However, VTP expects price competition in the delivery service industry to prolong.

* E-commerce market dynamics: VTP forecasts Vietnam’s e-commerce market size to grow by at least 15%–20% p.a. in the coming years. E-commerce platforms Shopee and TikTok Shop (Vietnam’s two largest e-commerce platforms) typically allocate 80%–90% of their parcel volumes to Shopee Express (Shopee’s in-house logistics arm) and J&T Express (TikTok Shop’s logistics partner), respectively, currently limiting VTP’s ability to capture volume growth in this channel.

2. Logistics service segment:

* Market landscape:

- Vietnam’s logistics sector remains dominated by foreign players. VTP estimates the logistics market size to be 2–3 times larger than that of the delivery segment, with transportation being the largest subsector. Management expects the shift from in-house logistics to third-party service providers to drive future growth of logistics services.

- The company aims to offer comprehensive multimodal transportation solutions, leveraging its existing infrastructure.

* Viettel Lang Son Logistics Park is currently operating at a small scale. VTP is in the process of requesting additional necessary licenses for completing the remaining infrastructure.

* Smart border gate development projects:

- Lang Son Province: VTP anticipates that the provincial government will issue bidding documents for smart border gate development around June 2025 and plans to participate in the project.

- Other provinces: VTP is also in discussions with authorities in Quang Ninh and Lao Cai, and has been invited to explore potential surveys at Lao Bao (Quang Tri, Vietnam–Laos border) and Moc Bai (Tay Ninh, Vietnam–Cambodia border), although these locations currently see lower cross-border trade values compared to those in the north.

- VTP is discussing investment in the technological systems for smart border gates, which require less capex compared to physical infrastructure development.

- As a State-owned enterprise under the Ministry of Defense, VTP believes its affiliation may provide strategic support in participating in these Government-led infrastructure projects.

3. Other discussion:

* Vipo Mall: This is a trial project aiming to serve SMEs in bulk purchases. VTP does not have plans to develop Vipo Mall to compete against e-commerce platforms.

* Capital raising plan: VTP is preparing a capital raising proposal to be submitted to Viettel Group and the Ministry of Defense. Specific details have not yet been disclosed.

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