We reiterate our BUY rating for VRE with a target price of VND37,500/share. Our 6.3% lower target price is mainly due to our more conservative projections for new mall launches in 2024-2027F, our lower forecasts for the property sales segment, a 0.5 ppt higher WACC and a 0.5 ppt higher cap rate assumption, which are partly offset by the positive impact of rolling our target price horizon to end-2023.

We maintain our 2022F NPAT-MI forecast at VND2.4tn (USD98mn; +85% YoY) as we continue to expect a significantly lower COVID-19 support package in Q4 2022F vs VND766bn (USD31mn) in Q4 2021. 

For 2023F, we forecast NPAT-MI at VND3.3tn (USD132mn; +35% vs 2022F), which is driven by (1) the ongoing recovery of tenant businesses, (2) no significant COVID-19 support packages, (3) full-year contributions from new malls opened in H1 2022 — including VMM Smart City — and (4) the property sales segment finishing higher YoY.