- We maintain our target price (TP) of VND25,000/share as the positive impact of rolling our TP horizon forward to mid-2026F is offset by (1) lowering our target P/B from 1.30x to 1.20x and (2) a 2% cut in our aggregate 2025-2029F NPAT-MI (respective changes of +0%/-2%/-5%/-3%/-1% in 2025/26/27/28/29F). We lower our forecast for aggregate NII (following lower average NIM during the forecast period) and NOII by 2% and 9%, respectively, as our lower average CIR and credit costs forecasts offset the negative impact.

- We believe VPB’s ample funding and strong financial group synergies will underpin its robust growth outlook, offsetting margin pressure from increased competition. Profit contributions from its subsidiaries—consumer finance, brokerage, and insurance, will be another catalyst. 

- We expect VPB to benefit from the ongoing recovery of the real estate (RE) sector. As of Q1 2025, loans to RE developers and mortgages accounted for 26% and 14% of VPB’s loan book.

- We model VPB to pay cash dividends of VND500/share for FY2025-2026F and VND1,000/share for FY2027-2029F. Management expects stable annual cash dividends in 2025-2027.

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