VPB [BUY +35.7%] - Strong growth outlook with competitive funding advantage

- We maintain our BUY rating for VPB and increase our target price (TP) by 2% to VND25,000/share as (1) the positive impact of rolling our TP horizon forward to end-2025F outweighs (2) a 7% decrease in our aggregate 2024-2028F NPAT-MI (respective changes of +4%/-8%/-6%/-11%/-11% in 2024/25/26/27/28F).

- We increase our 2024F NPAT-MI forecast by 4% to VND14.7tn (USD588mn; +71% YoY), mainly driven by (1) a 1% decrease in OPEX and (2) a 4% decrease in provision expenses.

- We believe that VPB will have strong earnings growth in the medium term, driven by: (1) a rebound in top-line growth and (2) gradual improvement in contributions from FEC.