- We maintain our BUY rating for VPB but decrease our target price (TP) by 7.7% to VND24,000/share due to (1) a 24% aggregate decrease in our projection for 2023-2027F NPAT-MI (-26%/-26%/-23%/-23%/-22% in 2023/24/25/26/27F, respectively) and (2) decreasing our target P/B from 1.50x to 1.40x, which outweigh the positive impact of rolling our TP horizon forward to mid-2024F. 

- We decrease our 2023F NPAT-MI by 26.0% to VND13.2tn (USD562mn; -27% YoY) vs our previous forecast, which is mainly driven by (1) a 13.4% decrease in our NII forecast due to lowering our assumptions for NIM and loan growth at FEC, in addition to (2) a 16.3% decrease in our NOII forecast and (3) a 4.6% increase in our provision charge assumption.

- VPB finalized a plan to issue 1.19 billion primary shares to Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation (SMBC) to amass a 15% stake in mid-2023F, which will enhance VPB’s top-tier CAR.

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