VPB - Asset quality improves; robust recovery at FEC - Earnings Flash
  • 2025-01-23T00:00:00
  • Company Research

VPB released its 2024 results with consolidated PBT of VND20.0tn (USD785mn; +85% YoY), achieving 107% of our full-year forecast. Q4 2024 consolidated PBT was VND6.2tn (+18% QoQ; +143% YoY). Overall, 2024 profits tracked slightly ahead of our expectations due to lower-than-expected operating expenses. Additionally, the recovery of FEC and the QoQ improvement in consolidated bad debt metrics were better than our expectations. We see potential upside to our current forecasts, pending a more extensive review.   

  • The parent bank’s 2024 credit growth was 19.4% (loan growth of 24.1%). As of 2024, the corporate bond balance at the parent bank decreased 70% vs 2023 and accounted for 1.1% of the total credit balance.    

  • 2024 consolidated deposit growth was 9.8%. The Q4 2024 CASA ratio was 14.1% (flat QoQ; -3.3 ppts YoY).   

  • 2024 consolidated NIM was 5.85% (+23 bps YoY) vs our full-year forecast of 5.96%. Q4 2024 consolidated NIM was 6.05% (+20 bps QoQ; +18 bps YoY). The QoQ improvement in NIM was mainly driven by a 38-bp increase in IEA yield, which we attribute to (1) stronger contribution of high-yield loans from FEC in Q4 2024, (2) strong recovery from written-off bad debts (mainly driven by FEC), and (3) QoQ improvement in asset quality. Additionally, we believe a QoQ increase in interbank funding contributions (cheaper vs customer deposits) also helped to ease pressure on the bank’s funding costs. 

  • VPB’s Q4 2024 LDR and short-term funding to medium and long-term lending were 81.6% and 27.3%, respectively. 2024 consolidated CAR was 15.4%. 

  • 2024 NOII increased 14% YoY and tracked in line with our expectation. Q4 2024 NOII of VND4.4tn (+52% QoQ; +93%YoY) was mainly driven by robust gains from trading FX, trading securities, and strong recovery from written-off bad debts at FEC.    

  • 2024 CIR of 23.0% was among the low-end in our coverage and OPEX was slightly lower than our expectation (completing 96% of our full-year forecast), which was partly driven by a 2% YoY decrease in employee expenses.    

  • On a QoQ basis, both the NPL ratio and the Group 2 loans level decreased. The Q4 2024 consolidated NPL ratio was 4.20% (-61 bps QoQ; -81 bps YoY). Q4 2024 group 2 loans to gross loans was 6.26% (-80 bps QoQ; -63 bps YoY). Q4 2024 consolidated LLR was 56.2% (+5.5 ppts QoQ; +4.5 ppts YoY). However, we note that Q4 2024 recorded VAMC bond balances of VND993bn after cleaning up in Q2 2024.   

  • FEC’s 2024 PBT was VND500bn (vs 2023 losses of nearly VND3tn), beating our forecast of VND131bn. In 2024, FEC’s loan growth was 10.3% YoY and new disbursements increased 40% YoY. We estimate that FEC’s Q4 2024 NPL ratio was reduced to around 15% (vs ~20% in 2023).  

Figure 1: VPB’s consolidated 2024 results 


VND bn  

2023  

2024  

 YoY  

Q4 2023 

Q4 2024 

YoY 

 NII  

38,175  

49,080  

28.6% 

11,042  

         13,193 

19.5% 

 Non-interest income  

11,565  

13,175 

13.9% 

2,295  

         4,442  

93.5% 

 OPEX  

(13,941) 

(14,340) 

2.9% 

(3,645) 

(3,791) 

4.0% 

 PPOP   

35,798  

47,915  

33.8% 

9,692  

        13,853 

42.9% 

 Provision expenses  

(24,994) 

(27,903) 

11.6% 

(7,168) 

(7,702) 

7.5% 

 NPAT-MI   

9,974  

15,779  

58.2% 

1,964  

         5,040  

156.5% 

  

  

  

  

  

  

  

 Loan growth 

29.2% 

22.4% 

-6.8 ppts 

8.6% 

9.1% 

0.5 ppts 

 Deposit growth   

45.9% 

9.8% 

-36.1 ppts 

5.0% 

2.1% 

-2.9 ppts 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 NIM  

5.62% 

5.85% 

23 bps 

5.87% 

6.05% 

18 bps 

 Interest-earning asset yield  

11.27% 

9.55% 

-172 bps 

10.85% 

9.81% 

-104 bps 

 Cost of funds  

6.65% 

4.43% 

-222 bps 

5.81% 

4.53% 

-128 bps 

 CASA ratio*  

17.4% 

14.1% 

-3.3 ppts 

17.4% 

14.1% 

-3.3 ppts 

 CASA ratio plus term deposits in FX     

17.6% 

14.5% 

-3.2 ppts 

17.6% 

14.5% 

-3.2 ppts 

 CIR  

28.0% 

23.0% 

-5.0 ppts 

27.3% 

21.5% 

-5.8 ppts 

  

  

  

  

  

  

  

 NPLs / Gross loans    

5.01% 

4.20% 

-81 bps 

5.01% 

4.20% 

-81 bps 

 Group 2 loans / Gross loans   

6.89% 

6.26% 

-63 bps 

6.89% 

6.26% 

-63 bps 

 Accrued interest / IEAs   

1.16% 

0.92% 

-23 bps 

1.16% 

0.92% 

-23 bps 

Source: VPB, Vietcap — *CASA volume includes demand deposits and margin deposits. ** Q4 2023 and Q4 2024 loan and deposit growth is QoQ growth; 2023 and 2024 loan and deposit growth is 12M growth. 

Figure 2: VPB’s separate 2024 results 

VND bn  

2023 

2024 

YoY 

Q4 2023 

Q4 2024 

YoY 

 NII  

        26,390  

36,334  

37.7% 

7,835  

9,969  

27.2% 

 Non-interest income  

        8,771  

         7,959  

-9.3% 

1,936  

2,138  

10.4% 

 OPEX  

(9,185) 

(9,613) 

4.7% 

(2,450) 

(1,895) 

-22.7% 

 PPOP   

   25,977  

34,680  

33.5% 

 7,321  

10,301  

40.7% 

 Provision expenses  

      (12,509) 

   (16,420) 

31.3% 

(4,826) 

(5,093) 

5.5% 

 NPAT-MI   

10,766  

14,641  

36.0% 

1,987  

 4,179  

110.3% 

  

 

  

  

  

  

  

 Loan growth 

37.3% 

24.1% 

-13.2 ppts 

9.3% 

8.9% 

-0.4 ppts 

 Deposit growth   

44.4% 

9.5% 

-34.9 ppts 

5.0% 

1.9% 

-3.1 ppts 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 NIM  

4.18% 

4.58% 

40 bps 

4.45% 

4.83% 

38 bps 

 Interest-earning asset yield  

9.68% 

8.19% 

-150 bps 

9.35% 

8.54% 

-81 bps 

 Cost of funds  

6.36% 

4.27% 

-209 bps 

5.61% 

4.41% 

-120 bps 

 CASA ratio*  

17.9% 

14.6% 

-3.2 ppts 

17.9% 

14.6% 

-3.2 ppts 

 CASA ratio plus term deposits in FX     

18.0% 

15.0% 

-3.1 ppts 

18.0% 

15.0% 

-3.1 ppts 

 CIR  

26.1% 

21.7% 

-4.4 ppts 

25.1% 

15.5% 

-9.5 ppts 

  

  

  

  

  

  

  

 NPLs / Gross loans    

3.20% 

3.04% 

-16 bps 

3.20% 

3.04% 

-16 bps 

 Group 2 loans / Gross loans   

6.19% 

5.77% 

-43 bps 

6.19% 

5.77% 

-43 bps 

 Accrued interest / IEAs   

1.10% 

0.86% 

-25 bps 

1.10% 

0.86% 

-25 bps 

Source: VPB, Vietcap — *CASA volume includes demand deposits and margin deposits. ** Q4 2023 and Q4 2024 loan and deposit growth is QoQ growth; 2023 and 2024 loan and deposit growth is 12M growth. 

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