VNM - Strong sales growth in overseas market; GPM slightly trails expectation - Earnings Flash
  • 2025-02-03T00:00:00
  • Company Research
  • 2024: Net sales increased by 2% YoY and NPAT-MI was VND9.5tn (USD373mn; +6% YoY), completing 98% and 99% of our respective full-year forecasts.
  • Q4 2024: Net sales slid by 1% YoY as domestic sales dropped 2% YoY, leading to total GPM declining by 110 bps YoY to 40%. Additionally, financial expenses increased 18% YoY. As a result, NPAT-MI declined 9% YoY.
  • Domestic sales: In Q4 2024, VNM’s parent domestic sales (excluding MCM – VNM’s indirect subsidiary) remained relatively flat YoY. In contrast, MCM’s sales declined 7% YoY and revenue from sugar & others declined 18% YoY. In 2024, VNM’s total domestic sales remained relatively flat YoY.
  • Overseas market: Combined sales from overseas subsidiaries — including Driftwood (US) and Angkor Milk (Cambodia) — grew 12% YoY in Q4 2024. Export revenue declined 3% YoY in Q4 2024. In 2024, total sales from the overseas market increased 13% YoY.
  • Profitability: In 2024, total GPM improved by 80 bps YoY to 41%, mainly due to strong expansion of GPM in overseas business (+4.6 ppts YoY), while GPM of domestic businesses remained flat YoY, which trailed our forecast. As of Q4, VNM has completed the majority of the rebranding pipelines as well as launched and relaunched 125 products. In 2024, SG&A/sales inched up 10 bps YoY.
  • Our view: As domestic GPM fell short of our expectation, we see potential downside risk to our 2025F NPAT-MI forecast, pending a fuller review.

VNM’s Q4 and 2024 results

VND bn

Q4 2023

Q4 2024

YoY

2023

2024A

YoY

2024F

2024A as % of 2024F

Net revenue

15,619

15,477

-1%

60,369

61,783

2%

62,901

98%

  • Domestic dairy

13,085

12,843

-2%

50,617

50,799

0%

51,683

98%

  • Overseas market

2,534

2,635

4%

9,752

10,983

13%

11,218

98%

Exports

1,298

1,253

-3%

5,039

5,664

12%

5,828

97%

Driftwood & Angkor Milk

1,236

1,382

12%

4,713

5,319

13%

5,390

99%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gross profit

6,442

6,209

-4%

24,545

25,590

4%

26,531

96%

  • Domestic dairy

5,455

5,170

-5%

20,894

20,975

0%

21,781

96%

  • Overseas market

986

1,039

5%

3,650

4,615

26%

4,750

97%

Exports

738

711

-4%

2,752

3,385

23%

3,509

96%

Driftwood & Angkor Milk

249

328

32%

898

1,230

37%

1,241

99%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

SG&A expenses

-3,998

-3,906

-2%

-14,774

-15,186

3%

-15,458

98%

EBIT

2,444

2,304

-6%

9,771

10,405

6%

11,073

94%

Net financial income

310

254

-18%

1,213

1,157

-5%

928

125%

NPAT-MI

2,326

2,124

-9%

8,874

9,392

6%

9,480

99%

Gross margin

41.2%

40.1%

 

40.7%

41.4%

 

42.2%

 

  • Domestic dairy

41.7%

40.3%

 

41.3%

41.3%

 

42.1%

 

  • Overseas market

38.9%

39.4%

 

37.4%

42.0%

 

42.3%

 

Exports

56.8%

56.8%

 

54.6%

59.8%

 

60.2%

 

Driftwood & Angkor Milk

20.1%

23.7%

 

19.1%

23.1%

 

23.0%

 

SG&A/net sales

25.6%

25.2%

 

24.5%

24.6%

 

24.6%

 

EBIT margin

15.6%

14.9%

 

16.2%

16.8%

 

17.6%

 

NPAT-MI margin

14.9%

13.7%

 

14.7%

15.2%

 

15.1%

 

Source: VNM, Vietcap

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