- 2025-02-03T00:00:00
- Company Research
- 2024: Net sales increased by 2% YoY and NPAT-MI was VND9.5tn (USD373mn; +6% YoY), completing 98% and 99% of our respective full-year forecasts.
- Q4 2024: Net sales slid by 1% YoY as domestic sales dropped 2% YoY, leading to total GPM declining by 110 bps YoY to 40%. Additionally, financial expenses increased 18% YoY. As a result, NPAT-MI declined 9% YoY.
- Domestic sales: In Q4 2024, VNM’s parent domestic sales (excluding MCM – VNM’s indirect subsidiary) remained relatively flat YoY. In contrast, MCM’s sales declined 7% YoY and revenue from sugar & others declined 18% YoY. In 2024, VNM’s total domestic sales remained relatively flat YoY.
- Overseas market: Combined sales from overseas subsidiaries — including Driftwood (US) and Angkor Milk (Cambodia) — grew 12% YoY in Q4 2024. Export revenue declined 3% YoY in Q4 2024. In 2024, total sales from the overseas market increased 13% YoY.
- Profitability: In 2024, total GPM improved by 80 bps YoY to 41%, mainly due to strong expansion of GPM in overseas business (+4.6 ppts YoY), while GPM of domestic businesses remained flat YoY, which trailed our forecast. As of Q4, VNM has completed the majority of the rebranding pipelines as well as launched and relaunched 125 products. In 2024, SG&A/sales inched up 10 bps YoY.
- Our view: As domestic GPM fell short of our expectation, we see potential downside risk to our 2025F NPAT-MI forecast, pending a fuller review.
VNM’s Q4 and 2024 results
VND bn | Q4 2023 | Q4 2024 | YoY | 2023 | 2024A | YoY | 2024F | 2024A as % of 2024F |
Net revenue | 15,619 | 15,477 | -1% | 60,369 | 61,783 | 2% | 62,901 | 98% |
| 13,085 | 12,843 | -2% | 50,617 | 50,799 | 0% | 51,683 | 98% |
| 2,534 | 2,635 | 4% | 9,752 | 10,983 | 13% | 11,218 | 98% |
Exports | 1,298 | 1,253 | -3% | 5,039 | 5,664 | 12% | 5,828 | 97% |
Driftwood & Angkor Milk | 1,236 | 1,382 | 12% | 4,713 | 5,319 | 13% | 5,390 | 99% |
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Gross profit | 6,442 | 6,209 | -4% | 24,545 | 25,590 | 4% | 26,531 | 96% |
| 5,455 | 5,170 | -5% | 20,894 | 20,975 | 0% | 21,781 | 96% |
| 986 | 1,039 | 5% | 3,650 | 4,615 | 26% | 4,750 | 97% |
Exports | 738 | 711 | -4% | 2,752 | 3,385 | 23% | 3,509 | 96% |
Driftwood & Angkor Milk | 249 | 328 | 32% | 898 | 1,230 | 37% | 1,241 | 99% |
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SG&A expenses | -3,998 | -3,906 | -2% | -14,774 | -15,186 | 3% | -15,458 | 98% |
EBIT | 2,444 | 2,304 | -6% | 9,771 | 10,405 | 6% | 11,073 | 94% |
Net financial income | 310 | 254 | -18% | 1,213 | 1,157 | -5% | 928 | 125% |
NPAT-MI | 2,326 | 2,124 | -9% | 8,874 | 9,392 | 6% | 9,480 | 99% |
Gross margin | 41.2% | 40.1% |
| 40.7% | 41.4% |
| 42.2% |
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| 41.7% | 40.3% |
| 41.3% | 41.3% |
| 42.1% |
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| 38.9% | 39.4% |
| 37.4% | 42.0% |
| 42.3% |
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Exports | 56.8% | 56.8% |
| 54.6% | 59.8% |
| 60.2% |
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Driftwood & Angkor Milk | 20.1% | 23.7% |
| 19.1% | 23.1% |
| 23.0% |
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SG&A/net sales | 25.6% | 25.2% |
| 24.5% | 24.6% |
| 24.6% |
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EBIT margin | 15.6% | 14.9% |
| 16.2% | 16.8% |
| 17.6% |
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NPAT-MI margin | 14.9% | 13.7% |
| 14.7% | 15.2% |
| 15.1% |
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Source: VNM, Vietcap
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