- 2025-02-03T00:00:00
- Company Research
- VJC reported 2024 revenue of VND72tn (USD2.9bn; 23% YoY; 78% of our full-year forecast) and NPAT-MI of VND1.4tn (USD57mn; 518% YoY; 59% of our full-year forecast). We foresee downside potential to our forecast, pending a fuller review.
- The results trailed our expectations primarily due to 1) lower-than-expected sales and leasing back (SALB) revenue, 2) higher-than-expected SG&A/sales, and 3) other net income of VND438bn (USD18mn), vs VND0bn in our 2024F forecast.
- In 2024, SALB revenue stood at VND9.8tn (USD392mn; 29% of our full-year forecast), significantly trailing expectations due to 1) the delayed delivery of 12 Boeing 737-300Max aircraft and 2) a lower-than-expected Airbus SALB price. This was partially offset by stronger-than-expected transportation revenue of VND68tn (USD2.7bn; 32% YoY; 115% of our full-year forecast).
- In 2024, GPM improved to 9.7% (+5.4 ppts YoY), while SG&A/sales increased to 5.5% (+0.3 ppts YoY), leading to OPM improving to 4.2% (+5.1% YoY).
- The airline’s cash burn eased in 2024, with cash flow from operations (CFO) showing a loss of VND1.2tn (-USD48mn) in 2024, improving from a loss of VND2.4tn (-USD96mn) in 2023.
Q4 2024 results
- In Q4 2024, revenue reached VND19.8tn (USD792mn; +9% QoQ; +36% YoY) and NPAT-MI reached VND23bn (USD0.9mn; -96% QoQ; +4% YoY).
- SALB revenue surged to VND4.5tn (USD180mn; +46% QoQ; +427% YoY) as eight aircraft deliveries were completed in this quarter and a total of ten aircraft throughout 2024.
- However, GPM fell to 5.1% (-7.0 ppts QoQ). We estimate that the transportation segment incurred a VND45bn loss in this quarter, (vs VND1.5tn of profit in Q3 2024 and a VND256bn loss in Q4 2023), which we attribute to rising fuel costs amid seasonally weaker domestic travel demand.
- In Q4 2024, SG&A/sales returned to the 2020-2023 average of 5.8%, after a temporary drop to 3.7% in Q3 2024. As a result, OPM declined to -0.72% (-9.1 ppts QoQ).
VJC’s 2024 results
VND bn | Q4 2023 | Q3 2024 | Q4 2024 | QoQ | YoY | 2023 | 2024 | YoY | 2024A/2024F | 2024F |
Revenue | 14,603 | 18,164 | 19,797 | 9% | 36% | 58,341 | 71,991 | 23% | 78% | 92,524 |
- Core business | 13,752 | 15,084 | 15,308 | 1% | 11% | 51,407 | 67,776 | 32% | 115% | 58,700 |
- SALB & ROFR | 851 | 3,081 | 4,488 | 46% | 427% | 6,934 | 9,845 | 42% | 29% | 33,824 |
Gross Profit | -499 | 2,202 | 1,010 | -54% | N.M | 2,521 | 6,967 | 176% | 89% | 7,854 |
Operating Profit | -1,518 | 1,524 | -142 | N.M | -91% | -529 | 3,020 | N.M | 77% | 3,917 |
Financial income | 2,213 | 242 | 691 | 185% | -69% | 2,955 | 2,080 | -30% | 151% | 1,380 |
Financial expenses | -927 | -1,085 | -560 | -48% | -40% | -2,242 | -3,669 | 64% | 143% | -2,559 |
Net other income | 393 | 78 | 121 | 54% | -69% | 422 | 438 | 4% | N.M | 0 |
PBT | 161 | 760 | 108 | -86% | -33% | 606 | 1,869 | 208% | 68% | 2,738 |
NPAT-MI | 22 | 572 | 23 | -96% | 4% | 231 | 1,426 | 518% | 59% | 2,428 |
Margins |
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GPM | -3.4% | 12.1% | 5.1% |
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| 4.3% | 9.7% |
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| 8.5% |
OPM | -10.4% | 8.4% | -0.7% |
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| -0.9% | 4.2% |
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| 4.2% |
NPM | 0.2% | 3.1% | 0.1% |
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| 0.4% | 2.0% |
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| 2.6% |
Source: VJC, Vietcap
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