VJC – 2024 results trail forecasts amid delayed aircraft deliveries in SALB segment - Earnings Flash
  • 2025-02-03T00:00:00
  • Company Research
  • VJC reported 2024 revenue of VND72tn (USD2.9bn; 23% YoY; 78% of our full-year forecast) and NPAT-MI of VND1.4tn (USD57mn; 518% YoY; 59% of our full-year forecast). We foresee downside potential to our forecast, pending a fuller review.
  • The results trailed our expectations primarily due to 1) lower-than-expected sales and leasing back (SALB) revenue, 2) higher-than-expected SG&A/sales, and 3) other net income of VND438bn (USD18mn), vs VND0bn in our 2024F forecast.
  • In 2024, SALB revenue stood at VND9.8tn (USD392mn; 29% of our full-year forecast), significantly trailing expectations due to 1) the delayed delivery of 12 Boeing 737-300Max aircraft and 2) a lower-than-expected Airbus SALB price. This was partially offset by stronger-than-expected transportation revenue of VND68tn (USD2.7bn; 32% YoY; 115% of our full-year forecast).
  • In 2024, GPM improved to 9.7% (+5.4 ppts YoY), while SG&A/sales increased to 5.5% (+0.3 ppts YoY), leading to OPM improving to 4.2% (+5.1% YoY). 
  • The airline’s cash burn eased in 2024, with cash flow from operations (CFO) showing a loss of VND1.2tn (-USD48mn) in 2024, improving from a loss of VND2.4tn (-USD96mn) in 2023.

Q4 2024 results

  • In Q4 2024, revenue reached VND19.8tn (USD792mn; +9% QoQ; +36% YoY) and NPAT-MI reached VND23bn (USD0.9mn; -96% QoQ; +4% YoY). 
  • SALB revenue surged to VND4.5tn (USD180mn; +46% QoQ; +427% YoY) as eight aircraft deliveries were completed in this quarter and a total of ten aircraft throughout 2024.
  • However, GPM fell to 5.1% (-7.0 ppts QoQ). We estimate that the transportation segment incurred a VND45bn loss in this quarter, (vs VND1.5tn of profit in Q3 2024 and a VND256bn loss in Q4 2023), which we attribute to rising fuel costs amid seasonally weaker domestic travel demand.
  • In Q4 2024, SG&A/sales returned to the 2020-2023 average of 5.8%, after a temporary drop to 3.7% in Q3 2024. As a result, OPM declined to -0.72% (-9.1 ppts QoQ).

VJC’s 2024 results

VND bn

Q4 2023

Q3 2024

Q4 2024

QoQ

YoY

2023

2024

YoY

2024A/2024F

2024F

Revenue

14,603

18,164

19,797

9%

36%

58,341

71,991

23%

78%

92,524

- Core business

13,752

15,084

15,308

1%

11%

51,407

67,776

32%

115%

58,700

- SALB & ROFR

851

3,081

4,488

46%

427%

6,934

9,845

42%

29%

33,824

Gross Profit

-499

2,202

1,010

-54%

N.M

2,521

6,967

176%

89%

7,854

Operating Profit

-1,518

1,524

-142

N.M

-91%

-529

3,020

N.M

77%

3,917

Financial income

2,213

242

691

185%

-69%

2,955

2,080

-30%

151%

1,380

Financial expenses

-927

-1,085

-560

-48%

-40%

-2,242

-3,669

64%

143%

-2,559

Net other income

393

78

121

54%

-69%

422

438

4%

N.M

0

PBT

161

760

108

-86%

-33%

606

1,869

208%

68%

2,738

NPAT-MI

22

572

23

-96%

4%

231

1,426

518%

59%

2,428

Margins

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

GPM

-3.4%

12.1%

5.1%

 

 

4.3%

9.7%

 

 

8.5%

OPM

-10.4%

8.4%

-0.7%

 

 

-0.9%

4.2%

 

 

4.2%

NPM

0.2%

3.1%

0.1%

 

 

0.4%

2.0%

 

 

2.6%

Source: VJC, Vietcap

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