We expect H1 2023 will remain challenging for Vietnam’s equity market as a global recession dampens export demand and the final phase of tightening by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) constrains the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) from easing monetary policy. However, we expect a brighter outlook in H2 2023 as the market starts to anticipate a recovery in global growth in 2024. We set a VN-Index target of 1,300 for end-2023 (reduced from 1,400 previously) — 29% above the 2022 close of 1,007.

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