The economic picture has brightened somewhat as we head into the final month of 2012. Inflation looks to stay around 7-7.5% at year-end, and the trade balance remains in surplus. Combined with stable FDI inflows and overseas remittances, the dong has remained firm. Production output showed encouraging signs of recovery, which should support 4QFY12 GDP growth. Lastly, SBV may cut rates to support businesses by lowering funding costs. The main dark cloud remains the banking sector.