Upon taking office, US President Donald Trump initiated a series of tariff measures aiming to protect American interests. The first three countries targeted were China, Canada and Mexico. Additionally, the US imposed a 25% tariff on all imported steel and aluminum, effective March 12. Furthermore, the US plans to announce “reciprocal tariffs” on April 2, which could apply to all countries.

If the US matches Vietnam tariff rates item by item, Vietnam’s key exports to the US would be negatively impacted including electrical equipment, wooden furniture, garments and footwear, amongst others. However, our top ten sub-categories (based on 6 digit – HS Code list*) that have highest risk of tariff hike from the US accounts for total 11.5% of Vietnam export to the US in 2023, which include items related to electrical equipment (accounting for 1.9%), wooden furniture (4%), garments and footwear (4.6%) and others (0.6% of total exports to the US in 2023).

The White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt stated on March 31 that the upcoming announcement would focus on "country-based" tariffs. While she confirmed that President Trump remains "committed to implementing" tariffs on specific sectors, these sectoral duties would not be the main subject of the April 2 event.

In the case the US imposes a reciprocal tariff rate on each of all countries, Vietnam could face a lower tariff rate (10%) compared to China (+20%), Canada (+25%) and Mexico (+25%), in our base case scenario. We estimate 10% US tariffs applied on all imports from Vietnam could lower Vietnam’s GDP growth by 0.6 pts. 

As Vietnam ranks 3rd among countries with the highest trade surplus with the US, Vietnam faces a potential risk of being included in the list of countries subject to reciprocal tariffs. However, Vietnam has made significant efforts to narrow its trade surplus with the US. Since the beginning of 2025, business delegations from the two countries have continuously promoted cooperation, most notably the meeting where VJC’s CEO met Trump and Elon Musk in Jan 2025; Vietnamese enterprises led by the Minister of Industry and Trade went to the US and signed USD4.2bn contracts and agreements including LNG, Ethanol, Power plant engines and financial funding for mining in mid March (around USD36bn are under negotiating and expected to be signed); and on the US side, more than 60 US large companies (including Nike, Apple, Amazon, Boeing) traveled to Vietnam in late March 2025. In additional on March 31, 2025, , Vietnam has reduced most-favored-nation (MFN) tariffs on a list of products including several types of agriculture products (pistachios, frozen chicken thighs, almond); several types of cars, several wooden products and several types of energy (ethanol and LNG).

Currently, uncertainty remained, and final announcement will be released on April 2.

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