- The VND depreciated due to sudden demand from several enterprises. The VND depreciated by 1.0% against the USD on August 14-15 but recovered by 0.5% over the next two days (the USD/VND exchange rate was at 23,865 in the interbank market as of August 17, and the VND has depreciated by 1.1% against the USD YTD).

- NSR’s maintenance has limited impact on FX demand. As NSR uses only imported crude oil for production, we estimate the net impact of higher demand for petroleum imports and a reduction in crude oil imports could lead to additional demand of only around USD50mn. 

- We expect USD inflows to remain strong. In addition, we expect a solid USD supply from FDI and a robust trade surplus (USD16.5bn in 7M 2023) will continue to support the USD/VND exchange rate toward the year-end. Notably, upcoming USD inflows from VPB’s private placement to Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation (USD1.5bn in total) will help to boost USD supply.  

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