Aggregate Q1 2025 NPAT-MI for our coverage universe (including stocks listed on UpCOM, HNX and HOSE) increased 7% YoY and achieved 23% of our full-year 2025 forecast. Aggregate Q1 2025 NPAT-MI for our HSX-listed coverage increased 8% YoY, fulfilling 22% of our 2025 forecast. 

Sectors’ performance in Q1 2025: The Industrial Parks sector was a significant driver, boasting an exceptional 96% YoY NPAT increase and achieving 30% of its annual forecast. Power & Water also showed strength with a 27% YoY NPAT rise. The Financials sector demonstrated healthy growth in the first quarter of 2025, with Net Profit After Tax (NPAT) increasing by 10% year-over-year. This performance aligned the sector with expectations, achieving 22% of its full-year 2025 NPAT forecast. Several other key sectors, including Industrials (+19% YoY), Real Estate (+12% YoY), and Materials (+11% YoY), demonstrated growth but slightly underperformed in terms of earnings completion rate. The Consumer sector grew by a modest 3% YoY. Conversely, the Oil & Gas sector experienced a substantial 24% YoY NPAT decline, reaching only 18% of its annual target. The Transportation sector also faced a downturn with a 10% YoY NPAT decrease, though it notably achieved 40% of its full-year forecast, suggesting potential for future recovery or conservative initial projections. 

Outlook: Several factors may underpin near-term market sentiment in Vietnam, though the outcome of the US-Vietnam tariff negotiations remain a critical overhang. We anticipate a temporary boost to Vietnamese exports, evidenced by a 34.0% YoY surge to the US in April (25.1% YoY in 4M 2025), as firms possibly front-load inventory purchases during the current 90-day deferral on new US reciprocal tariffs. Concurrently, the May 5th launch of the Korea Exchange (KRX) trading system represents a significant upgrade to market infrastructure, potentially enhancing trading efficiency and bolstering investor confidence over time. Additionally, the 9th National Assembly session, which also commenced in May, holds promise for key institutional reforms, including discussions on constitutional amendments and provincial mergers, which could strengthen governance frameworks. Despite these potential domestic tailwinds, investor caution is warranted. The market will likely remain highly sensitive to developments in the pivotal US-Vietnam trade discussions, the resolution of which will significantly influence near-term market direction and could overshadow these positive catalysts. Although the Q1 results are in-line with our expectations, it is noteworthy that due to the 90-day tariff pause, the negative impact on companies and sectors are not materially seen in the Q1 results. As our 2025F forecasts for companies still lean toward more positive tariff negotiation outcomes, any worse-than-expected results can post potential downside risk to our projections.

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