Aggregate H1 2024 NPAT-MI for our coverage universe – and for our HSX-listed coverage - increased 12% YoY and achieved 50% of our full-year 2024F forecasts. Growth in aggregate NPAT-MI was led by banks, aviation, consumer, and steel stocks.

Outlook: Vietnam’s GDP growth of 6.4% YoY and overall economic performance in H1 2024 were broadly in line with our expectations and we maintain our forecast for GDP growth to improve to 6.5% in 2024 from 5.0% in 2023. H1 2024 NPAT-MI achievement ratios for all the larger cap sectors (banks, consumer, real estate, and energy) ranged between 48% and 51% of our full-year 2024F forecasts, suggesting that earnings are broadly on track vs our expectations. We remain positive on the market and maintain our VN-Index targets at 1,350 for 2024 and 1,550 for 2025. As outlined in our January 5 Vietnam Strategy 2024 report and our recent Mid-year Strategy Update, published on July 5, we forecast earnings to rebound strongly to post double-digit growth in 2024 and 2025 after a decline in 2023, we expect only moderate increases in VND bank deposit rates from current near-historical lows over the next 18 months, and we view market valuations as undemanding relative to the VN-Index’s history and other ASEAN markets. 

Leading sectors in H1 2024: Financials, transportation & logistics, consumer, and materials led growth in aggregate H1 2024 NPAT-MI, both in absolute and percentage terms. Banks’ earnings are benefiting from accelerating economic growth and stabilizing asset quality. Airlines and ACV are highly leveraged to the recovery in inbound foreign tourism and international flights, while the recovery in merchandise trade volumes from the low base in H1 2023 is driving rising core earnings for port operators and logistics providers. Consumer businesses are seeing improving volumes and margins, as are steel producers, resulting in strong recoveries in earnings from a low base in H1 2023.

Powered by Froala Editor