We reiterate our BUY rating for VIC and increase our target price (TP) by 6.2% to VND94,900/share, which is mainly due to our 18% and 7% higher valuations for the industrial and retail leasing segments, respectively, as well as a lower net debt balance at end-2022. We remain bullish on Vingroup’s strong exposure to Vietnam’s rising affluent class via its real estate arms Vinhomes (VHM), Vincom Retail (VRE) and Vinpearl.

We forecast VIC’s 2023F EBIT at VND10.2tn (USD433mn) vs an EBIT loss of VND11.5tn (USD489mn) in 2022 as we expect strong property sales recognitions and a recovery of the retail leasing segment to more than offset EBIT losses for the industrial and hospitality segments. Our 2023F and 2024F EBIT are 15% and 4% lower than our respective previous forecasts as we project higher EBIT losses for both segments.