We attended VIC’s annual general meeting (AGM) on April 24.

* 2025G guidance: Shareholders approved management’s 2025 guidance with net revenue of VND300tn (USD11.5bn; +59% YoY) and NPAT of VND10tn (USD385mn; +90% YoY), which are 68% and 21% higher than our respective full-year forecasts. VIC’s NPAT results in 2022/23/24 were equivalent to 34%/103%/117% of the respective guidance set at the beginning of each year. We attribute the difference between the company's guidance and our forecasts mainly to VHM’s earnings guidance being higher than our projection.

* Distribution plan for 2024 retained earnings: Shareholders approved that the cumulative undistributed earnings as of end-2024 (after retaining VND5bn to the reserve fund as specified in the Charter of the company) will be used to invest in the company’s business operations. 

Vietnam to continue as VinFast’s main sales market in 2025G. VinFast targets its global EV deliveries to double from 2024 of 97,400 units to ~200,000 units in 2025G. Per management, at this delivery target, VinFast is expected to hold ~40% market share in Vietnam and hence reach breakeven in the domestic market. For international markets, VinFast is focusing on ASEAN countries (Indonesia and the Phillipines) and India. Management updated that two CKD facilities in India and Indonesia (each with a Phase 1 capex of USD150-200mn; capacity of up to 50,000 cars/year) are expected to start operations in June and October 2025, respectively – in line with management guidance set in July 2024 and slightly sooner than our projection. Additionally, the US factory (Phase 1 capex of USD1.4bn) is currently on hold.

Vinpearl to be listed on HOSE in the near term: On March 3, 2025, Vinpearl submitted its listing application to HOSE and is currently waiting for HOSE's review and approval. Per management, Vinpearl is at the final step of the listing procedure and expects to receive approval in April and to list in May. If based on the early 2025 offering rights issue price of VND71,350/share, Vinpearl’s market cap would be VND128tn (USD5bn) which we believe reflects both its existing operational facilities and its new project pipeline. 

VIC is entering two new sectors: renewable energy and infrastructure. Since March 2025, VIC has proposed to develop: an LNG-fired power complex in Hai Phong (in which the 4,800 MW LNG-fired project has been added to the Revised Power Development Plan VIII), and renewables project pipeline (including floating solar, solar farms, and near-shore wind). Per VIC’s Chairman, this strategic move to renewable energy is driven by three key rationales: (1) addressing Vietnam’s power shortages, (2) ensuring the group follows its pathway of sustainable development with a clean energy supply, and (3) responding to the Government’s direction for greater contributions from major private enterprises to national economic growth. In infrastructure and transportation, VIC has proposed to do the Can Gio metro line and the Hanoi-Quang Ninh High-Speed Railway, which could bring benefits to VIC/VHM’s Can Gio (2,870 ha; commercial name: Green Paradise; groundbreaking ceremony was on April 19, 2025) and Ha Long Xanh (5,490 ha; commercial name: Apollo City) projects. The preliminary capital structure for the proposed investments allocates 15% to equity, 35% to bank loans, and 50% to EPC (engineering, procurement, and construction) financing. The Chairman also noted that decisions regarding investment and financing will be determined by the group’s capital capacity and efficiency considerations. Our initial view for VIC’s expansion moves is 1) development would likely involve a partner, 2) the company’s strong track record in large, capital-intensive projects could support implementation, 3) while the projects show long-term potential for recurring revenue, their medium-term impact on VIC is expected to be insignificant, as these projects are still at a very early stage.

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