VHM [MARKET PERFORM -9.3%] - Upcoming southern projects to drive presales in 2025/26F - Update
  • 2025-05-28T00:00:00
  • Company Research
  • We reiterate our MARKET PERFORM rating for VHM and increase our target price (TP) by 59% to VND67,400/share. Our higher TP is largely due to 1) a lower RNAV discount from 45% to 20% (see Page 2), 2) higher valuations for the Green Paradise (Can Gio) and Apollo City (Ha Long Xanh) projects, and 3) the positive effect from rolling our TP horizon forward to mid-2026 from end-2025, which are partly offset by 4) a higher net debt balance at end-Q1 2025. 
  • We forecast 2025F NPAT-MI at VND32.1tn (USD1.2bn; +1% YoY), which is driven by unbilled bookings (including the newly launched Wonder City), expected completed sales at Ocean Park 2&3, and upcoming presales at Green Paradise. 
  • We raise our respective 2025/26/27F NPAT-MI forecasts by 6%/7%/9%, driven by our increased respective underlying property revenue forecasts by 14%/17%/17% due to higher projected recognition from new presales, which are partly offset by higher projected financial expenses and minority interests.

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