- We reiterate our MARKET PERFORM rating for VHM and keep our target price (TP) broadly unchanged at VND42,500/share.

- We forecast 2025F NPAT-MI at VND30.2tn (USD1.2bn; -4% YoY), which is driven from the unbilled bookings, expected completed sales at ongoing projects, and expected new project launches (including Wonder City, previously named Wonder Park). We expect the end-2024 unbilled bookings (VND94.2tn/USD3.7bn; -5.5% YoY; mainly at Royal Island and Ocean Park 2 & 3) to contribute ~60% of our 2025F underlying property revenue forecast. We revise down our forecast by 3% mainly due to a higher projection for financial expenses.

- We forecast VHM’s aggregate 2025-2027F presales at VND287tn (USD11.3bn), with ~30% coming from ongoing projects (i.e., Royal Island and Ocean Park 2 & 3) and ~70% from expected new project launches (i.e., Wonder City and Green City in 2025F; Golden City, Apollo City, and Green Paradise in 2026F). We raise our 2025/26F presales forecasts by 13%/4% respectively, primarily due to stronger-than-expected presales momentum at Ocean Park 3 in H2 2024 and our higher projection for the Duong Kinh presales in 2026F.

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