VHC - Strong 34% YoY earnings growth beats expectation - Earnings Flash
  • 2025-02-04T00:00:00
  • Company Research
  • VHC reported 2024 revenue of VND12.5tn (USD496mn; +25% YoY) and NPAT-MI of VND1.2tn (USD49mn; +34% YoY), achieving 101% and 103% of our respective full-year forecasts. The 2024 results slightly exceeded our expectations, mainly due to the higher-than-expected contribution from financial gains and inventory provision reversal. As such, we see no material risks to our 2025 forecasts, pending further review. 
  • VHC’s 2024 revenue growth was driven by a 25% YoY increase in sales of frozen pangasius filets and related products (e.g., breaded fish, fish fat, fish meal, and feed), alongside 7% YoY growth in collagen and gelatin (C&G) and a 53% YoY surge in rice (Sa Giang) products. Sales surged across key markets, including the US (+33% YoY), Europe (+19% YoY), and other countries (+32% YoY). Sales in China saw modest 6% YoY growth due to the country’s more cautious consumer spending.
  • We estimate that in 2024, GPM before inventory provisions declined by 1.4 ppts YoY to 13.7% (vs 15.1% in 2023), primarily due to pangasius filet ASP falling to USD2.9/kg (-5% YoY), partially offset by a 30% YoY increase in volume. We note that VHC’s quarterly recognition of inventory provisions and reversals may obscure the direct impact of selling prices and input costs on GPM movements.  
  • In Q4 2024, VHC's gross profit and NPAT-MI surged 137% YoY and 505% YoY, respectively. GPM expanded by 7.8 ppts YoY, driven by strong volume growth and lower feed costs. Additionally, net margin widened by 10.3 ppts YoY, outpacing GPM expansion, largely due to (1) a 39% YoY increase in net financial gains, mainly from FX gains, and (2) a VND94bn inventory provision reversal.

VHC’s Q4 and 2024 results

VND bn

Q4 2024

YoY

QoQ

 2023

 2024

YoY

2024A/2024F

Net revenue

     3,206 

34%

-2%

   10,033 

   12,535 

25%

101%

*By market

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

-       US

      1,020 

74%

-11%

2,962 

3,937

33%

 

-       Europe

          525 

26%

5%

       1,772 

2,117

19%

 

-       China & Hong Kong

           317 

45%

9%

        1,182 

1,248

6%

 

-       Others

          431 

13%

-33%

        1,281 

1,692

32%

 

-       Vietnam

           911 

10%

7%

      2,779 

3,493

26%

 

*By product

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

-       Collagen & gelatin

          142 

-34%

-18%

          720 

          772 

7%

 

-       Frozen filets & others

      2,888 

39%

0%

      8,792 

11,008 

25%

 

-       Rice products

           173 

23%

3%

         462 

          706 

53%

 

Gross profit

578

137%

0%

      1,493 

       1,891 

27%

104%

SG&A

-202

30%

25%

-524

-639

22%

107%

EBIT

          376 

326%

-10%

         969 

      1,253 

29%

102%

PBT

          481 

254%

20%

1,145 

1,497 

31%

104%

NPAT-MI

         425 

505%

33%

          919 

      1,234 

34%

103%

Gross margin

18.0%

 

 

14.9%

15.1%

 

 

SG&A/sales

6.3%

 

 

5.2%

5.1%

 

 

EBIT margin

11.7%

 

 

9.7%

10.0%

 

 

NPAT-MI margin

13.3%

 

 

9.2%

9.8%

 

 

Source: VHC, Vietcap forecasts (*Revenue breakdowns by market and product are based on VHC’s preliminary results, of which the total revenue figure is slightly different from the official number)

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