- 2025-02-04T00:00:00
- Company Research
- VHC reported 2024 revenue of VND12.5tn (USD496mn; +25% YoY) and NPAT-MI of VND1.2tn (USD49mn; +34% YoY), achieving 101% and 103% of our respective full-year forecasts. The 2024 results slightly exceeded our expectations, mainly due to the higher-than-expected contribution from financial gains and inventory provision reversal. As such, we see no material risks to our 2025 forecasts, pending further review.
- VHC’s 2024 revenue growth was driven by a 25% YoY increase in sales of frozen pangasius filets and related products (e.g., breaded fish, fish fat, fish meal, and feed), alongside 7% YoY growth in collagen and gelatin (C&G) and a 53% YoY surge in rice (Sa Giang) products. Sales surged across key markets, including the US (+33% YoY), Europe (+19% YoY), and other countries (+32% YoY). Sales in China saw modest 6% YoY growth due to the country’s more cautious consumer spending.
- We estimate that in 2024, GPM before inventory provisions declined by 1.4 ppts YoY to 13.7% (vs 15.1% in 2023), primarily due to pangasius filet ASP falling to USD2.9/kg (-5% YoY), partially offset by a 30% YoY increase in volume. We note that VHC’s quarterly recognition of inventory provisions and reversals may obscure the direct impact of selling prices and input costs on GPM movements.
- In Q4 2024, VHC's gross profit and NPAT-MI surged 137% YoY and 505% YoY, respectively. GPM expanded by 7.8 ppts YoY, driven by strong volume growth and lower feed costs. Additionally, net margin widened by 10.3 ppts YoY, outpacing GPM expansion, largely due to (1) a 39% YoY increase in net financial gains, mainly from FX gains, and (2) a VND94bn inventory provision reversal.
VHC’s Q4 and 2024 results
VND bn | Q4 2024 | YoY | QoQ | 2023 | 2024 | YoY | 2024A/2024F |
Net revenue | 3,206 | 34% | -2% | 10,033 | 12,535 | 25% | 101% |
*By market |
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- US | 1,020 | 74% | -11% | 2,962 | 3,937 | 33% |
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- Europe | 525 | 26% | 5% | 1,772 | 2,117 | 19% |
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- China & Hong Kong | 317 | 45% | 9% | 1,182 | 1,248 | 6% |
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- Others | 431 | 13% | -33% | 1,281 | 1,692 | 32% |
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- Vietnam | 911 | 10% | 7% | 2,779 | 3,493 | 26% |
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*By product |
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- Collagen & gelatin | 142 | -34% | -18% | 720 | 772 | 7% |
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- Frozen filets & others | 2,888 | 39% | 0% | 8,792 | 11,008 | 25% |
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- Rice products | 173 | 23% | 3% | 462 | 706 | 53% |
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Gross profit | 578 | 137% | 0% | 1,493 | 1,891 | 27% | 104% |
SG&A | -202 | 30% | 25% | -524 | -639 | 22% | 107% |
EBIT | 376 | 326% | -10% | 969 | 1,253 | 29% | 102% |
PBT | 481 | 254% | 20% | 1,145 | 1,497 | 31% | 104% |
NPAT-MI | 425 | 505% | 33% | 919 | 1,234 | 34% | 103% |
Gross margin | 18.0% |
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| 14.9% | 15.1% |
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SG&A/sales | 6.3% |
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| 5.2% | 5.1% |
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EBIT margin | 11.7% |
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| 9.7% | 10.0% |
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NPAT-MI margin | 13.3% |
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| 9.2% | 9.8% |
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Source: VHC, Vietcap forecasts (*Revenue breakdowns by market and product are based on VHC’s preliminary results, of which the total revenue figure is slightly different from the official number)
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