- 2024-01-23T00:00:00
- Company Research
- VHC announced 2023 results with revenue of VND10.0tn (USD415mn; -24% YoY) and NPAT-MI of VND897bn (USD37mn; -55% YoY), fulfilling 94% and 78% of our respective full-year forecasts. As the results trailed our projections, we see a downside risk to our forecasts, pending a more comprehensive review.
- We mainly attribute the subdued 2023 results to the destocking of global buyers in early 2023 and the delay of orders in the year due to concerns over economic instability across markets. This hurts sales volume which decreased 15% YoY in 2023.
- In Q4 2023, VHC’s revenue decreased 3% YoY which is mainly due to a 28% YoY plunge in export prices that was partially offset by 25% YoY higher volume, per our estimates. Meanwhile, NPAT-MI plummeted 75% YoY amid an 11 ppts compression in GPM that was chiefly due to lower selling prices, in our view.
- Meanwhile, VHC’s export volume/prices decreased 8%/12% QoQ in Q4 2023 (per our estimates), which is discouraging vs the 9% QoQ increase in Q3 and considering the arrival of the holiday seasons in Q4 (Christmas and Lunar New Year).
VHC’s Q4 and 2023 results
VND bn | Q4 2022 | Q4 2023 | YoY | QoQ | 2022 | 2023 | YoY | 2023as % of 2023F |
Net revenue | 2,475 | 2,396 | -3% | -11% | 13,464 | 10,039 | -24% | 94% |
|
|
| 25% | -8% |
|
| -15% |
|
|
|
| -28% | -12% |
|
| -26% |
|
Gross profit | 476 | 195 | -59% | -31% | 2,976 | 1,445 | -51% | 86% |
SG&A expenses | -222 | -148 | -33% | 10% | -721 | -517 | -28% | 102% |
Operating profit | 254 | 47 | -82% | -69% | 2,254 | 928 | -59% | 79% |
Financial income | 93 | 74 | -20% | -36% | 434 | 371 | -15% | 88% |
Financial expenses | -110 | -37 | -66% | -18% | -370 | -222 | -40% | 85% |
Net other income/(loss) | 0 | 15 | N.M. | 81% | 4 | 31 | 8x | N.M. |
PBT | 236 | 99 | -58% | -57% | 2,323 | 1,108 | -52% | 83% |
NPAT-MI | 188 | 48 | -75% | -75% | 1,975 | 897 | -55% | 78% |
Gross margin | 19.1% | 8.1% |
|
| 22.1% | 14.3% |
|
|
SG&A expenses/revenue | 8.9% | 6.2% |
|
| 5.4% | 5.1% |
|
|
EBIT margin | 10.2% | 2.0% |
|
| 16.7% | 9.2% |
|
|
NPAT-MI margin | 8.0% | 2.8% |
|
| 15.0% | 9.4% |
|
|
Source: VHC, Vietcap’s forecast (*Vietcap’s estimate from Agromonitor data)
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