- We raise our target price (TP) for VCB by 4.0% to VND 114,500/share and maintain a BUY rating. 

- Our higher TP is mainly due to the positive impact from rolling our TP horizon forward to end-2025. This is partly offset by a 10.9% aggregate decrease in our 2024-2028F NPAT-MI (with respective changes of -6.6%/-14.1%/-14.4%/-10.7%/-8.8% in 2024/25/26/27/28F). Additionally, we maintain our target P/B of 3.2x.

- Our lower 2024-2028F NPAT-MI is primarily due to (1) a 6.9% aggregate decrease in NII following a downward revision in our average NIM assumption from 3.56% to 3.31%, (2) an 11.4% aggregate decrease in NFI (including gains from FX trading) driven by the slower-than-expected recovery of banca activities. These are partly offset by a 3.2% aggregate decrease in operating expenses.

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