- 2025-04-28T00:00:00
- Company Research
- TLG reported Q1 2025 revenue of VND794bn (-6% YoY; 18% of our full-year forecast) and NPAT-MI of VND79bn (-11% YoY; 15% of our full-year forecast). The Q1 2025 results trailed our expectations due to weaker-than-expected sales among markets.
- Typically, Q1 is TLG’s low season, completing an average of 20% of revenue and 18% of NPAT-MI. Nevertheless, we see downside risk to our forecasts, pending a fuller review.
- Export sales: In Q1 2025, export sales reached VND284bn (-8% YoY; 23% of our full-year forecast). Per management, the YoY decrease in export sales was because of a short-term demand disruption driven by natural disasters in some of TLG’s traditional ASEAN export markets in Q1 2025. Looking ahead, management expects export growth to return to positive momentum over the subsequent quarters.
- Domestic sales: In Q1 2025, domestic sales reached VND511bn (+2% YoY; 16% of our full-year forecast), trailing our expectations, amid weaker-than-expected consumer spending recovery. We maintain our outlook for a continued recovery in 2025, supported by distributor restocking and a cautious rebound in consumer spending.
- GPM improved slightly by 10 bps QoQ and 30 bps YoY to 42.8% in Q1 2025, falling short of 44.6% in our full-year forecast. This slight YoY improvement is supported by ongoing cost control and a strategy for optimizing operational capabilities. Looking ahead, we expect TLG to sustain these efficiencies through 2025F while further benefiting from low plastic costs.
- SG&A: In Q1 2025, SG&A/revenue reached 30.7% (-7.4 ppts QoQ; +1.2 ppts YoY; vs our full-year forecast of 30.1%). This is in line with our forecast, as TLG has a track record of recognizing low SG&A expenses in H1 and higher in H2.
TLG’s Q1 2025 results
VND bn | Q1 2024 | Q4 2024 | Q1 2025 | QoQ | YoY | Q1 2025 as % of 2025F | 2025F |
Net revenue | 809 | 847 | 794 | -6% | -2% | 18% | 4,496 |
Domestic | 499 | 641 | 511 | -20% | 2% | 16% | 3,288 |
Exports | 310 | 206 | 284 | 38% | -8% | 23% | 1,208 |
Gross profit | 343 | 361 | 340 | -6% | -1% | 17% | 2,004 |
SG&A expense | -238 | -322 | -244 | -24% | 2% | 18% | -1,353 |
Operating profit | 105 | 39 | 96 | 146% | -8% | 15% | 651 |
Interest expense | -3 | -4 | -5 | 28% | 50% | 35% | -14 |
Net other gain/loss | -13 | 4 | -12 | -429% | -7% | 13% | -97 |
NPAT-MI | 88 | 39 | 79 | 101% | -11% | 15% | 540 |
GPM | 42.5% | 42.7% | 42.8% |
|
|
| 44.6% |
SG&A/revenue | -29.5% | -38.1% | -30.7% |
|
|
| -30.1% |
OPM | 13.0% | 4.6% | 12.1% |
|
|
| 14.5% |
NPM | 10.9% | 4.6% | 9.9% |
|
|
| 12.0% |
Source: TLG, Vietcap forecasts
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