- 2025-01-24T00:00:00
- Company Research
- TLG reported 2024 revenue of VND3.8tn (+9% YoY; 97% of our full-year forecast) and NPAT-MI of VND460bn (+29% YoY; 100% of our full-year forecast). We see insignificant changes to our forecast, pending a fuller review.
- In Q4 2024, revenue was VND847bn (-5% QoQ; +23% YoY) and NPAT-MI was VND39bn (-57% QoQ; +37% YoY).
- Export sales: In 2024, export sales reached VND1.0tn (+24% YoY; 101% of our full-year forecast), contributing 27% to total revenue (vs 23% in 2023). Growth was primarily driven by OEM exports - supported by customer restocking, market penetration, and enhanced brand presence strategies. We expect export sales to maintain strong momentum through 2025F, driven by 1) recovering demand in key markets (e.g., the US and SEA), and 2) TLG's ongoing efforts to expand its distribution network and strengthen its brand presence, particularly in ASEAN countries.
- Domestic sales: In 2024, domestic sales showed a modest recovery, reaching VND2.7tn (+4% YoY; 98% of our full-year forecast). We maintain our outlook for a continued recovery in 2025, supported by distributor restocking and a cautious rebound in consumer spending.
- GPM slightly narrowed, by 20 bps QoQ to 42.7% in Q4 2024, which we attribute to high-cost plastic inventory accumulated during Q2-Q3 2024. Normally, TLG stocks inventory in advance for four to six months of production. For the full year, however, GPM improved by 90 bps to 44.6%, driven by TLG's efforts to enhance its product mix and improve operational efficiencies. We expect TLG to sustain these efficiencies through 2025F.
- SG&A: In Q4 2024, SG&A/revenue rose to 38.1% (vs 30.0% in Q3 2024; 38.3% in Q4 2023), following the company’s track record, in line with our expectations. For 2024, SG&A expenses/revenue declined to 30.0% (vs 31.4% in 2023), broadly in-line with our forecast of 30.1%, reflecting TLG’s continued efforts to manage SG&A expenses. We expect the company to sustain these cost management efficiencies through 2025F.
TLG’s 2024 results
VND bn | Q4 | Q3 | Q4 | QoQ | YoY | 2023 | 2024 | YoY | 2024A/ | 2024F |
Net revenue | 689 | 896 | 847 | -5% | 23% | 3,462 | 3,759 | 9% | 97% | 3,863 |
Domestic | 527 | 659 | 641 | -3% | 22% | 2,648 | 2,747 | 4% | 96% | 2,862 |
Exports | 162 | 237 | 205 | -13% | 27% | 813 | 1,012 | 24% | 101% | 1,000 |
Gross profit | 296 | 385 | 361 | -6% | 22% | 1,513 | 1,675 | 11% | 98% | 1,713 |
SG&A expense | -264 | -269 | -322 | 20% | 22% | -1,087 | -1,127 | 4% | 97% | -1,161 |
Operating profit | 32 | 116 | 39 | -66% | 22% | 425 | 549 | 29% | 99% | 553 |
Interest expense | -3 | -4 | -4 | 7% | 33% | -18 | -13 | -25% | 101% | -13 |
Net other gain/loss | -1 | -21 | 4 | N.M | N.M | -51 | -75 | 47% | 95% | -79 |
NPAT-MI | 28 | 91 | 39 | -57% | 37% | 356 | 460 | 29% | 100% | 460 |
GPM | 42.9% | 42.9% | 42.7% |
|
| 43.7% | 44.6% |
|
| 44.4% |
SG&A/revenue | -38.3% | -30.0% | -38.1% |
|
| -31.4% | -30.0% |
|
| -30.1% |
OPM | 4.6% | 12.9% | 4.6% |
|
| 12.3% | 14.6% |
|
| 14.3% |
NPM | 4.1% | 10.2% | 4.6% |
|
| 10.3% | 12.2% |
|
| 11.9% |
Source: TLG, Vietcap forecasts
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