- We downgrade our rating for TLG from BUY to OUTPERFORM and cut our target price (TP) by 4%. The reduction in our target price is due to our 17% lower aggregate 2023F-2025F NPAT-MI, which is partly offset by rolling our valuation horizon from end-2023 to mid-2024. 

- Our lower 2023-2025 NPAT forecasts are mainly due to higher SG&A expenses associated with marketing and sales. We forecast SG&A/revenue to remain at 30% (2022 level) in 2023-2025. Higher projected expenses are partly offset by an increase of 2% in our aggregate 2023F-2025F revenue.

- We forecast revenue to rise 9% YoY in 2023, which is lower than 32% in 2022 and the pre-COVID level of mid-teen growth rates. This translates to 2023F core NPAT growth of 8%.

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