- 2024-10-29T00:00:00
- Company Research
- TLG reported its 9M 2024 results, with revenue and NPAT-MI up by 5% and 29% YoY, respectively, achieving 75% and 98% of our 2024F full-year forecasts. We foresee upside potential to our forecasts, pending a fuller review.
- In Q3 2024, exports continued to drive revenue with 34% YoY growth, mainly fueled by OEM exports amid customers’ restocking, the company’s productivity improvements, and market expansion. In 9M 2024, exports contributed 28% to total revenue, higher than the 23% in 2023. Additionally, domestic sales continued recovering slowly with 8% YoY growth.
- GPM narrowed from 48.5% in Q2 2024 to 42.9% in Q3 2024, aligning with TLG’s track record of selling higher-margin products in Q2. In addition, we attribute the Q3 2024 results to high-cost plastic inventory accumulated during Q2 2024. Normally, TLG stocks inventory in advance for four to six months of production. This factor is partly offset by higher selling prices. In Q3 2024, TLG’s ASP increased by 5% QoQ, per our estimates.
- SG&A expenses/revenue was 30.0% in Q3 2024, in line with our expectations of high SG&A costs in H2 2024 as TLG has been scaling up its advertising and marketing activities.
- We expect a continued earnings recovery in Q4 2024–2025, supported by improvements in sales volume and the product mix.
TLG’s 9M 2024 results
VND bn | Q3 2023 | Q2 2024 | Q3 2024 | QoQ | YoY | 9M 2023 | 9M 2024 | YoY | 9M 2024 as % of 2024F | 2024F |
Net revenue | 785 | 1,207 | 896 | -26% | 14% | 2,773 | 2,912 | 5% | 75% | 3,863 |
Domestic | 608 | 947 | 659 | -30% | 8% | 2,121 | 2,105 | -1% | 74% | 2,862 |
Exports | 177 | 260 | 237 | -9% | 34% | 652 | 807 | 24% | 81% | 1,000 |
Gross profit | 354 | 586 | 385 | -34% | 9% | 1,217 | 1,314 | 8% | 77% | 1,701 |
SG&A expense | -280 | -297 | -269 | -10% | -4% | -824 | -804 | -2% | 68% | -1,188 |
Operating profit | 74 | 289 | 116 | -60% | 56% | 393 | 510 | 30% | 99% | 513 |
Interest expense | -5 | -3 | -4 | 14% | -30% | -15 | -10 | -35% | 73% | -13 |
Net other gain/loss | -9 | -43 | -21 | -53% | 130% | -50 | -77 | 56% | 110% | -70 |
NPAT-MI | 60 | 242 | 92 | -62% | 53% | 328 | 423 | 29% | 98% | 430 |
GPM | 45.1% | 48.5% | 42.9% |
|
| 43.9% | 45.1% |
|
| 44.0% |
SG&A/revenue | 35.7% | 24.6% | 30.0% |
|
| 29.7% | 27.6% |
|
| 30.8% |
OPM | 9.4% | 23.9% | 12.9% |
|
| 14.2% | 17.5% |
|
| 13.3% |
NPM | 7.7% | 20.1% | 10.3% |
|
| 11.8% | 14.5% |
|
| 11.1% |
Source: TLG, Vietcap forecast
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