- 2025-04-21T00:00:00
- Company Research
- TDM announced its Q1 2025 results with revenue of VND100bn (-6% YoY) and reported NPAT-MI of VND144bn (+277% YoY), which complete 18% and 46% of our respective full-year forecasts. The surge in NPAT is due to the dividend from BWE in February, amounting to VND1,300/share, which is equivalent to VND94bn for TDM.
- Q1 sales volume was 15.7 million cubic meters, +3% YoY vs our full-year forecast of 5% YoY, completing 21% of 2025 forecast.
- Excluding the dividend income, NPAT from water generation is estimated at VND37bn (-4% YoY), 19% of our full-year forecast. We attribute the YoY decline in NPAT to (1) lower ASP, estimated to fall 9% YoY on average, and (2) forex loss and provisions for Gia Tan and Biwase Quang Binh; these factors outweigh (3) 3% YoY volume growth and (4) a 23% YoY decrease in depreciation expenses following the full depreciation of nearly VND400bn in fixed assets at the end of 2024. As per TDM, it started to reduce ASP for BWE from March 1 due to tough competition. This is also the reason for the company’s revised 2025 guidance, stated in the AGM on March 25.
- TDM spent VND169bn (5% of its assets) to M&A a 10% stake in Phu My Vinh Investment & Construction JSC (unlisted) at a price of VND34,500/share.
- We see downside risk to our 2025F NPAT forecast, pending a fuller review. We currently have an OUTPERFORM rating for TDM with a target price of VND58,100/share.
TDM’s Q1 2025 results
VND bn (unless stated) | Q1 2024 | Q1 2025 | YoY% | % of Vietcap’s 2025F |
Water sales volume (million cbm) | 15.3 | 15.7 | 2.6% | 21% |
Revenue | 106 | 100 | -6% | 18% |
COGS | (57) | (49) | -14% | 15% |
Depreciation expenses | (37) | (28) | -23% | 17% |
Gross profit | 49 | 51 | 3% | 21% |
SG&A expenses | (4) | (4) | 1% | 28% |
Operating profit | 45 | 46 | 4% | 21% |
Financial income | 2 | 108 | 5367% | 80% |
Financial expenses | (5) | (6) | 27% | 21% |
Interest expenses | (4) | (2) | -62% | 9% |
Net other income/loss | 1 | (0) | N.M. | N.M. |
Profit before tax | 42 | 148 | 249% | 45% |
Income tax expenses | (4) | (4) | -1% | 21% |
NPAT-MI | 38 | 144 | 277% | 46% |
NPAT from water generation | 38 | 37 | -4% | 19% |
Source: TDM, Vietcap
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