- We decrease our target price (TP) for TDM by 1% to VND58,100/share and downgrade our rating from BUY to OUTPERFORM. The revised TP reflects (1) a 5.7% decrease in our aggregate 2025-2029F NPAT-MI forecast (with respective changes of -6%/-5%/-6%/-6%/-5% for 2025/26/27/28/29F), which outweighs (2) a 2.3% higher valuation for BWE.

- Our lower aggregate 2025-2029F NPAT-MI forecast is primarily due to a six-month delay in the 3% water tariff hike to January 2026 combined with slightly lower-than-expected weighted average water tariffs in 2024.

- We forecast reported NPAT to grow 52% YoY, driven by (1) 5% YoY volume growth, (2) BWE’s dividend income, and (3) a 35% decline in financial expenses due to lower provisions for Gia Tan Water. These factors outweigh additional depreciation for the newly constructed raw water pipeline in Di An.

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