- We raise our target price (TP) for SZC by 9% to VND48,300/share and downgrade our rating to OUTPERFORM from BUY. Our higher TP is mainly due to (1) our higher valuation for the Chau Duc IP, reflecting our slower projected CAPEX disbursement for 2025-28F compared to our previous projection, and (2) a lower net debt balance as of end-2024.

- We broadly maintain our 2025/26F NPAT-MI forecasts as we factor in the resumption of BOT 768 toll collection from April 5, 2025 (based on SZC’s disclosure citing Document No. 2021/UBND-KTN dated March 4, 2025), which is partially offset by our lower projected contribution from the UA segment.

- We forecast 2025F NPAT-MI to grow 42% YoY to VND428bn (USD17mn), driven by (1) stronger IP revenue YoY, supported by an estimated end-2024 unbilled IP land backlog of ~30 ha (to Tripod and Vina One) and an expected improvement in ASP; (2) increased UA land handovers at Huu Phuoc UA compared to 2024; and (3) an improving outlook for the BOT and golf segments.

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