STK – Surprise Q4 performance; FY2024 NPAT-MI surpasses forecast - Earnings Flash
  • 2025-02-03T00:00:00
  • Company Research
  • STK reported FY2024 revenue of VND1.2tn (-15% YoY; 100% of our full-year forecast) and NPAT-MI of VND46bn (-48% YoY; 2.8x of our full-year forecast). We foresee potential upside to our forecasts, pending a fuller review.
  • In Q4 2024, revenue was VND334bn (+9% QoQ; -5% YoY), broadly aligning with our forecast. However, NPAT-MI came in at VND19bn (-77% QoQ, -40% YoY), significantly beating our forecast of an VND11bn loss, due to 1) GPM reaching 18.7%, beating our forecast of 11.9%, 2) SG&A/sales hitting a record low of 3.9%, well below our 5.6% projection and the 5Y average of 5.0%. This was partly offset by a lower-than-expected FX loss.
  • Q4 2024 sales volume reached 6,324 tonnes (+12% QoQ; -8% YoY), driven by improving orders. Additionally, STK has hired additional labor for manual quality control to partly address ongoing issues with the automatic quality control system (QCS). Per management, this added labor may increase costs by VND100mn/year (<1% of 2023 labor costs). In 2024, sales volume reached 23,225 tonnes (-16% YoY; 105% of our full-year forecast).
  • Recycled yarn made up 36% of Q4 2024 sales volume (up from 31% in Q3 2024; 34% in Q4 2023). In 2024, recycled yarn accounted for 34%, slightly below our projection of 40% due to a slower-than-expected recovery in mid-to-high-end product demand.
  • GPM improved to 18.7% in Q4 2024 (vs 16.9% in Q3 2024), supported by a 4% QoQ decrease in the average input PET chip price and lower idle machine costs. In 2024, GPM stood at 13.3% (-50 bps YoY), exceeding our forecast of 11.1%.
  • In 2024, STK recorded FX losses of VND35bn due to a 4.8% appreciation in USD/VND. This result beat our forecast of VND60bn. The principal balance reduced to USD45mn at 2024YE from USD52mn at 2023YE.

STK’s 2024 results

VND bn

Q4 2023

Q3 2024

Q4 2024

QoQ

YoY

2023

2024

YoY

2024A/2024F

2024F

Sales volume (tonnes)*

6,845

5,655

6,324

12%

-8%

27,631

23,225

-16%

105%

22,105

Revenue

352

307

334

9%

-5%

1,425

1,210

-15%

100%

1,215

Virgin yarn

201

180

175

-3%

-13%

720

671

-7%

111%

602

Recycled yarn

152

127

159

25%

5%

705

539

-24%

88%

613

Gross profit

58

52

62

20%

8%

192

161

-16%

120%

134

Virgin yarn

18

21

15

-26%

-14%

27

29

N.M

N/M

11

Recycled yarn

40

31

47

51%

17%

164

128

-22%

104%

123

Selling expenses

-6

-2

-3

4%

-56%

-19

-12

-36%

94%

-13

G&A expenses

-15

-14

-10

-27%

-29%

-60

-52

-13%

95%

-55

EBIT

37

35

49

40%

32%

111

96

-13%

146%

66

Financial income

3

11

-13

-212%

-548%

19

13

-31%

42%

31

Financial expenses

-7

37

-12

-134%

84%

-42

-52

25%

65%

-80

Other non-ops 

0

0

0

N.M

N.M

0

0

N/M

N/M

0

PBT

34

83

24

-71%

-28%

91

52

-42%

295%

18

NPAT-MI

32

82

19

-77%

-40%

88

46

-48%

279%

16

Margins

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Blended GPM

16.4%

16.9%

18.7%

 

 

13.5%

13.3%

 

 

11.1%

Virgin yarn GPM

8.8%

11.5%

8.7%

 

 

3.8%

4.3%

 

 

1.8%

Recycled yarn GPM

26.5%

24.7%

29.7%

 

 

23.3%

23.7%

 

 

20.1%

SG&A/sales

5.8%

5.4%

3.9%

 

 

5.6%

5.4%

 

 

5.6%

EBIT margin

10.6%

11.5%

14.8%

 

 

7.8%

8.0%

 

 

5.4%

EBITDA margin

16.7%

0.0%

60.9%

 

 

14.3%

15.2%

 

 

14.0%

NPAT-MI margin

9.0%

26.6%

5.6%

 

 

6.2%

3.8%

 

 

1.3%

Source: STK, Vietcap

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