SAB [BUY +37.2%] - 2025F earnings growth supported by beer GPM improvement

- We maintain our BUY rating for SAB and cut our target price (TP) by 8% to VND67,000/share.

- Our lower TP is due to (1) a 3% cut in our projected 2025F EPS and (2) a 5% reduction in our target P/E from 19.6x to 18.6x following a 5% cut in our aggregate 2025-29F NPAT-MI forecasts. This stems from lowering our beer sales volume and beer GPM assumptions. The latter is caused by (1) a longer-than-expected period of using up high-cost malt and (2) higher-than-anticipated aluminum prices.

- We project 2025F NPAT-MI to grow 9% YoY, mainly driven by (1) 4% YoY beer sales volume growth and (2) a 1.7-ppts-YoY increase in beer GPM.