- 2024-02-01T00:00:00
- Company Research
- 2023 results: SAB announced its 2023 results with net revenue of VND30.5tn (USD1.2bn; -13% YoY) and NPAT-MI of VND4.1tn (USD167.6mn; -21% YoY). The weak results are broadly in-line with our expectations as 2023 revenue and NPAT-MI fulfilled 101% and 98% of our respective full-year forecasts.
- Q4 2023 results: In Q4 2023, net revenue was VND8.5tn (USD346.7mn; -15% YoY & +15% QoQ) and NPAT-MI was VND947bn (USD38.5mn; -9.3% YoY & -9.4% QoQ).
- Beer revenue improved on a QoQ basis but still witnessed a YoY drop. In Q4 2023, beer revenue was VND7.3tn (USD304mn), marking a 13% YoY decline, vs -13% YoY in Q3 2023. We attribute the continued weak sales performance to prolonged weak beer demand, driven by (1) subdued household spending, especially for non-essential items and (2) stricter enforcement of drunk driving laws. However, on a QoQ basis, beer sales increased by 10%, which we mainly attribute to higher consumption before the Lunar New Year.
- Gross profit margin (GPM) continued to stay at a low level in Q4 2023. In Q4 2023, beer GPM decreased by 9 bps YoY and 31 bps QoQ to 33.8% in Q4 2023. Q4 2023 marked the 2nd lowest beer GPM during the eight most recent quarters since 1Q 2022, 10 bps higher than Q1 2023’s trough of 33.7%. In the full-year 2023, beer GPM narrowed by 133 bps YoY to 34.1%. We attribute the prolonged low GPM to high input cost inventories as SAB’s 2023 volume is lower than the company’s plan.
- Net margin improved YoY but narrowed QoQ in Q4 2023: In Q4 2023, NPAT-MI margin improved by 71 bps YoY to 11.1%. However, on a QoQ basis, NPAT-MI margin plunged by nearly 300 bps due to (1) 129 bps lower blended GPM and (2) increased SG&A/sales of 47 bps. We attribute the increase in SG&A/sales to higher advertising and promotion spending to strengthen market positioning amid heightening competition.
- 2023’s NPAT-MI margin was partly cushioned by the increase in net financial income. In 2023, the NPAT-MI margin declined by 142 bps YoY although EBIT margin declined by 321 bps. The decline in EBIT margin was partially offset by a 35% YoY increase in net financial income, largely driven by a 36% YoY increase in deposit income.
SAB’s Q4 and 2023 results
VND bn | Q4 2022 | Q4 2023 | YoY | 2022 | 2023 | YoY | 2023/ Vietcap’s 2023F |
Total revenue | 10,029 | 8,520 | -15.0% | 34,979 | 30,461 | -12.9% | 101% |
Beer revenue | 8,471 | 7,341 | -13.3% | 30,600 | 26,923 | -12.0% | 100% |
Others | 1,558 | 1,180 | -24.3% | 4,379 | 3,538 | -19.2% | 109% |
Total gross profit | 2,814 | 2,456 | -12.7% | 10,771 | 9,091 | -15.6% | 99% |
Selling expenses | -1,612 | -1,339 | -17.0% | -4,532 | -4,479 | -1.2% | 101% |
G&A expenses | -200 | -214 | 6.8% | -741 | -801 | 8.1% | 101% |
EBIT | 1,001 | 903 | -9.8% | 5,498 | 3,812 | -30.7% | 96% |
Non-operating profit | 359 | 346 | -3.7% | 1,316 | 1,559 | 18.5% | 102% |
PBT | 1,360 | 1,249 | -8.2% | 6,813 | 5,370 | -21.2% | 98% |
NPAT-MI | 1,043 | 947 | -9.3% | 5,224 | 4,118 | -21.2% | 98% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Margins |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Blended GPM | 28.1% | 28.8% |
| 30.8% | 29.8% |
|
|
Beer GPM | 33.9% | 33.8% |
| 35.4% | 34.1% |
|
|
Blended EBIT margin | 10.0% | 10.6% |
| 15.7% | 12.5% |
|
|
EBIT/beer revenue | 11.8% | 12.3% |
| 18.0% | 14.2% |
|
|
Blended NPAT-MI margin | 10.4% | 11.1% |
| 14.9% | 13.5% |
|
|
Source: SAB, Vietcap forecast
Powered by Froala Editor