- We lower our target price (TP) for QTP by 6% to VND15,000/share but maintain our BUY rating. 

- The lower TP is due to (1) a 13.0% cut in our aggregate 2025–29F reported NPAT-MI forecast (with respective reductions of 20.6%/15.2%/24.5%/4.2%/3.5% for 2025–29F), which outweighs (2) the positive impact of rolling our valuation forward to mid-2026. The downward revision in NPAT-MI is driven by (1) a 5% cut in CGM prices as highlighted in our Thermal Power Sector Update dated June 02, 2025, which outweighs (2) 2% lower average material costs due to the decline in mixed coal prices (see Energy Sector Update, dated April 25, 2025).

- We forecast 2025F reported NPAT-MI to decrease 5% YoY, mainly driven by the effective tax rate rising to 20% (vs 10% in 2024), while PBT increases 7% YoY, driven by (1) 4% YoY higher sales volume and (2) an increase in the Qc ratio, outweighing (3) the YoY lower CGM price.

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