PVT - Reported NPAT-MI grows 13% YoY, slightly trails forecast

PVT reported Q4 2024 revenue of VND3.3tn (+19% YoY) and NPAT-MI of VND210bn (-7% YoY). The robust revenue growth was driven by contributions from eight new vessels acquired in 2024, resulting in a 29% YoY increase in total fleet DWT capacity, which outweighed the impact of lower tanker rates during the quarter. While NPAT before MI grew 5% YoY, the 7% YoY decline in NPAT after MI was primarily due to higher minority interest. This increase reflects the contribution of four vessels received in 2024 by subsidiaries, which accounted for 40% of the total fleet DWT capacity growth.
For 2024, PVT reported revenue of VND11.8tn (+24% YoY) and reported NPAT-MI of VND1.1tn (+13% YoY). We attribute the strong growth to (1) higher tanker rates in 2024, with global crude oil, oil product, and chemical tanker rates rising 3.1%, 3.9%, and 11.0% YoY, respectively. This was coupled with (2) fleet expansion, with the addition of seven new vessels in 2023 and eight more in 2024, resulting in 30% YoY and 29% YoY increases in total fleet DWT capacity, respectively. These factors together outweighed (3) the 48% YoY increase in outsourcing and other cash costs.
PVT’s results are equivalent to 99% and 92% of our respective revenue and reported NPAT-MI forecasts. The slightly lower-than-expected NPAT-MI was mainly due to (1) lower-than-expected GPM, and (2) higher-than-expected SG&A expenses, which outweighed (3) the benefits of lower-than-expected financial expenses.
Overall, we see slight downside risk to our 2025 forecasts as PVT appeared to overbook outsourcing & other cash costs (the expenses over revenue ratio was abnormally high at 57% in Q4 2024 vs 44% over the past eight quarters) and interest expense was VND123bn lower-than-expected, pending a fuller review. Additionally, capex of VND3.9tn (nominally declining vs 2023’s record high) was broadly in line with our expectation. We believe this will support strong core earnings growth in 2025.

PVT’s 2024 results

VND bn	Q4 2023	Q4 2024	YoY	2023	2024	YoY	% of Vietcap’s 2024F
Revenue	2,822	3,348	19%	9,556	11,812	24%	99%
Transportation	2,238	2,474	11%	7,667	9,208	20%	94%
FSO, trading & others	584	874	50%	1,889	2,604	38%	121%
Gross profit	487	576	18%	1,838	2,445	33%	91%
Transportation	436	491	13%	1,560	2,112	35%	91%
FSO, trading & others	51	85	66%	279	333	19%	95%
Sales & marketing exp	-3	-6	85%	-13	-17	24%	107%
General admin exp	-161	-198	23%	-410	-489	19%	117%
Operating profit (EBIT)	323	372	15%	1,415	1,939	37%	86%
Financial income	93	101	9%	371	309	-17%	113%
Financial expenses	-136	-173	28%	-466	-576	24%	86%
In which, interest expense	-107	-112	5%	-355	-415	17%	77%
Share profit/loss from associates	7	3	-56%	26	17	-36%	78%
Net other income/loss	57	62	9%	202	182	-10%	135%
NPAT	259	271	5%	1,222	1,472	21%	92%
NPAT-MI, reported	226	210	-7%	972	1,095	13%	92%
NPAT-MI, core	181	161	-11%	811	949	17%	88%
EBITDA	728	775	6%	2,740	3,487	27%	87%
			Δ ppts			Δ ppts
Gross profit margin	17.3%	17.2%	-0.1	19.2%	20.7%	+1.5
EBIT Margin	11.4%	11.1%	-0.3	14.8%	16.4%	+1.6
Reported NPAT-MI margin	8.0%	6.3%	-1.7	10.2%	9.3%	-0.9
Core NPAT-MI margin	6.4%	4.8%	-1.6	8.5%	8.0%	-0.4

Source: PVT, Vietcap. Note: Core NPAT-MI excludes the net other income/loss.

Figure 2: Summarizing tanker rates in Q4 2024 and 2024

‘000 USD/day	Q4 2024	QoQ	YoY	Q4 2024 vs 2021 (pre-Russia – Ukraine conflict)	2024	YoY
Aframax	36.1	-22%	-14%	2.2x	44.9	3.1%
Medium Range (MR)	22.9	-19%	-12%	1.7x	27.8	3.9%
Handymax	23.8	-14%	-3%	2.2x	26.7	11.0%

Source: Alibra, Bloomberg, Vietcap (Note: We use the Aframax tanker rate as a benchmark for the crude tanker rate, MR for oil product tanker rates, and Handymax for petrochemical tanker rates)