PVT - Reported NPAT-MI grows 13% YoY, slightly trails forecast - Earnings Flash
  • 2025-02-03T00:00:00
  • Company Research
  • PVT reported Q4 2024 revenue of VND3.3tn (+19% YoY) and NPAT-MI of VND210bn (-7% YoY). The robust revenue growth was driven by contributions from eight new vessels acquired in 2024, resulting in a 29% YoY increase in total fleet DWT capacity, which outweighed the impact of lower tanker rates during the quarter. While NPAT before MI grew 5% YoY, the 7% YoY decline in NPAT after MI was primarily due to higher minority interest. This increase reflects the contribution of four vessels received in 2024 by subsidiaries, which accounted for 40% of the total fleet DWT capacity growth.
  • For 2024, PVT reported revenue of VND11.8tn (+24% YoY) and reported NPAT-MI of VND1.1tn (+13% YoY). We attribute the strong growth to (1) higher tanker rates in 2024, with global crude oil, oil product, and chemical tanker rates rising 3.1%, 3.9%, and 11.0% YoY, respectively. This was coupled with (2) fleet expansion, with the addition of seven new vessels in 2023 and eight more in 2024, resulting in 30% YoY and 29% YoY increases in total fleet DWT capacity, respectively. These factors together outweighed (3) the 48% YoY increase in outsourcing and other cash costs.
  • PVT’s results are equivalent to 99% and 92% of our respective revenue and reported NPAT-MI forecasts. The slightly lower-than-expected NPAT-MI was mainly due to (1) lower-than-expected GPM, and (2) higher-than-expected SG&A expenses, which outweighed (3) the benefits of lower-than-expected financial expenses.
  • Overall, we see slight downside risk to our 2025 forecasts as PVT appeared to overbook outsourcing & other cash costs (the expenses over revenue ratio was abnormally high at 57% in Q4 2024 vs 44% over the past eight quarters) and interest expense was VND123bn lower-than-expected, pending a fuller review. Additionally, capex of VND3.9tn (nominally declining vs 2023’s record high) was broadly in line with our expectation. We believe this will support strong core earnings growth in 2025.  

 PVT’s 2024 results

VND bn

Q4 2023

Q4 2024

YoY

2023

2024

YoY

% of Vietcap’s 2024F

Revenue

2,822

3,348

19%

9,556

11,812

24%

99%

  Transportation

2,238

2,474

11%

7,667

9,208

20%

94%

  FSO, trading & others

584

874

50%

1,889

2,604

38%

121%

Gross profit

487

576

18%

1,838

2,445

33%

91%

  Transportation

436

491

13%

1,560

2,112

35%

91%

  FSO, trading & others

51

85

66%

279

333

19%

95%

Sales & marketing exp

-3

-6

85%

-13

-17

24%

107%

General admin exp

-161

-198

23%

-410

-489

19%

117%

Operating profit (EBIT)

323

372

15%

1,415

1,939

37%

86%

Financial income

93

101

9%

371

309

-17%

113%

Financial expenses

-136

-173

28%

-466

-576

24%

86%

  In which, interest expense

-107

-112

5%

-355

-415

17%

77%

Share profit/loss from associates

7

3

-56%

26

17

-36%

78%

Net other income/loss

57

62

9%

202

182

-10%

135%

NPAT

259

271

5%

1,222

1,472

21%

92%

NPAT-MI, reported

226

210

-7%

972

1,095

13%

92%

NPAT-MI, core

181

161

-11%

811

949

17%

88%

EBITDA

728

775

6%

2,740

3,487

27%

87%

 

 

 

Δ
 ppts

 

 

Δ ppts

 

Gross profit margin

17.3%

17.2%

-0.1

19.2%

20.7%

+1.5

 

EBIT Margin

11.4%

11.1%

-0.3

14.8%

16.4%

+1.6

 

Reported NPAT-MI margin

8.0%

6.3%

-1.7

10.2%

9.3%

-0.9

 

Core NPAT-MI margin

6.4%

4.8%

-1.6

8.5%

8.0%

-0.4

 

Source: PVT, Vietcap. Note: Core NPAT-MI excludes the net other income/loss.

Figure 2: Summarizing tanker rates in Q4 2024 and 2024

‘000 USD/day 

Q4 2024

QoQ

YoY

Q4 2024 vs 2021 (pre-Russia – Ukraine conflict)

2024

YoY

Aframax

36.1

-22%

-14%

2.2x

44.9

3.1%

Medium Range (MR)

22.9

-19%

-12%

1.7x

27.8

3.9%

Handymax

23.8

-14%

-3%

2.2x

26.7

11.0%

Source: Alibra, Bloomberg, Vietcap (Note: We use the Aframax tanker rate as a benchmark for the crude tanker rate, MR for oil product tanker rates, and Handymax for petrochemical tanker rates)

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