- We lower our target price (TP) for PVT by 19% to VND26,200/share and downgrade our rating from BUY to OUTPERFORM. The lower target price is mainly driven by our 25% lower aggregate 2025-2029F NPAT-MI forecast (respective changes of -25%/-27%/-24%/-24%/-25% for 2025/26/27/28/29F), outweighing the positive impact of rolling our TP forward to mid-2026.

- We lower our aggregate NPAT-MI forecast due to (1) lowering our tanker rates assumption (page 13) following weaker global rates YTD and weakened market outlook, and (2) increase our interest expenses projection following PVT’s Q1 2025 results. 

- We forecast 2025 recurring NPAT-MI to grow 1% YoY. This is mainly due to (1) fleet DWT (deadweight tonnage) expanding by an estimated ~30% YoY in 2024, and 2) an 18% YoY increase in BSR’s transport volume for BSR’s crude oil transportation (~20% of fleet DWT) outweighing our projected decline in PVT’s tanker rates, with the rates of crude oil tankers, oil product tankers, and chemical tankers decreasing 25%/30%/25% YoY, respectively.  Q1 2025 recurring NPAT-MI was VND208bn (-5% YoY).

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