- We lower our target price (TP) for PVS by 12% to VND44,900/share and maintain our BUY rating. Our lower TP is mainly due to (1) our 17% lower aggregate NPAT-MI forecast (respective changes of -36%/-33%/-17%/-5%/-4% for 2025/26/27/28/29F) which outweighs the positive impact of rolling our TP forward to mid-2026.

- Our lower aggregate NPAT-MI forecast is driven by: 1) lowering our M&C margin assumptions by 90 bps on average as we now assume for PVS to continue to expense rather than capitalize and depreciate its capex related to offshore wind M&C capacity expansion; and 2) we add another VND250bn provision for land lease expense at its 51%-stake subsidiary Sao Mai – Ben Dinh (after its VND251bn provision in its 2024 audited financial statements, see page 18).

- We project 2025 core NPAT-MI to grow 11% YoY, driven by the M&C segment with 78% growth in revenue and our 1.5% GPM assumption. 2025 reported NPAT is forecast to decline 14% YoY as 2024 one-off profit will not reoccur. We project 27%/16% core/reported EPS CAGRs for 2024-27F, driven by our unchanged M&C signed and unsigned backlog projection of USD7.4bn (as PVS continues to bid on new wind contracts) and profit from FSO/FPSO JVs of VND773bn p.a. in 2025-29F.

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