PVD - Robust recurring 23% YoY NPAT-MI growth but trails expectations - Earnings Flash
  • 2025-02-03T00:00:00
  • Company Research
  • PVD reported Q4 2024 revenue of USD112mn (+52% YoY) and NPAT-MI of USD8.6mn (+5% YoY). The growth in NPAT-MI was driven by (1) a 50% YoY reduction in financial expenses and (2) net other income of USD2.0mn, which we attribute to a land rig 11 divestment gain (compared to a net other loss of USD0.4mn in Q4 2023). These factors outweighed (3) a 29% YoY decline in operating profit, which was impacted by a 49% YoY decrease in the drilling segment’s gross profit , which we attribute to the lack of contributions from land rig 11 and lower day rates for leased rigs (Hakuryu-11 and BORR-THOR), aligning with a 37% YoY drop in regional day rates. Meanwhile, gross profit of well-related services surged 1.5x YoY, reflecting a recovery aligned with Vietnam’s E&P growth cycle.
  • For full-year 2024, PVD achieved revenue of USD373.6mn (+52% YoY) and reported NPAT-MI of USD27.9mn (+14% YoY). We estimate recurring NPAT-MI of USD30.0mn (+23% YoY), driven by (1) a 2.2x YoY increase in the drilling segment’s gross profit and (2) a 32% YoY rise in well-related services gross profit, which outweighed (3) 29% YoY decrease in profit from associated companies (due to these companies recording losses in H1 2024).
  • PVD’s full-year revenue and reported NPAT-MI were equivalent to 107% and 95% of our respective full-year forecasts. However, recurring NPAT-MI completed only 89% of our forecast due to potential lower day rates of leased rigs and higher-than-expected cash operating costs, which resulted in lower-than-expected GPM in the drilling segment. We foresee slight  downside risk to our earnings forecasts pending further review as lower profit from the drilling segment might outweigh lower-than-expected interest expenses and higher-than-expected shared profit.

Figure 1: PVD’s 2024 results

USD mn

Q4 2023

Q4 2024

YoY

2023

2024

YoY

% of Vietcap’s 2024F

Brent oil price (USD/bbl)

83

74

-10%

82

80

3%

100%

Revenue

73.8

112.2

52%

245.5

373.6

52%

107%

COGS

-57.0

-97.8

72%

-190.6

-303.6

59%

111%

Gross profit

16.8

14.4

-14%

54.9

70.0

27%

94%

Sales & marketing exp

-0.5

-0.9

59%

-1.0

-1.4

38%

136%

General admin exp

-6.4

-6.6

2%

-22.0

-24.0

9%

98%

Operating profit (EBIT)

9.9

7.0

-29%

32.0

44.6

40%

91%

Financial income

1.5

1.5

-2%

5.7

6.1

8%

103%

Financial expenses

-3.3

-1.7

-50%

-16.6

-15.9

-4%

94%

   In which: interest expense

-2.6

-1.9

-28%

-10.6

-9.6

-10%

91%

Shared profit from associates

1.7

1.5

-11%

2.8

2.0

-29%

142%

Net other income/loss

-0.4

2.0

N.M.

3.9

0.7

N.M.

N.M.

Profit before tax (PBT)

9.3

10.3

11%

27.7

37.5

35%

99%

Income tax expenses

-1.1

-1.0

-12%

-4.9

-9.6

96%

90%

NPAT

8.2

9.3

14%

22.8

27.9

22%

102%

Minority interest (MI)

0.0

-0.7

N.M.

-1.6

0.0

N.M.

N.M.

Reported NPAT-MI

8.2

8.6

5%

24.5

27.9

14%

95%

Recurring NPAT-MI (**)

8.7

6.8

-21%

24.4

30.0

23%

89%

EBITDA

18.7

16.6

-11%

68.1

80.4

18%

93%

Source: PVD, Vietcap. Note: (*) Vietcap’s estimates; (**) recurring NPAT-MI excludes the impact of provisions for PVEP’s bad debts, reversal of withholding tax (which occurs when jack-up rigs work in Malaysia), science fund reversal, forex losses, and one-off profit.

Figure 2: Summarizing regional jack-up rig day rate and utilization rate


Q4 2024

QoQ

YoY

2024

YoY

Day rate (USD/day)

80,329

-27%

-37%

118,364

-1%

Utilization rate (%) 

97.1

+0.5 ppts

+3.4 ppts

96.6

+5.0 ppts

Source: S&P Global, Bloomberg, Vietcap

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