We attended PTB’s 2024 AGM in Binh Dinh Province on April 15.

1.    2025 guidance: 

-    Revenue: VND6.7tn (+3% YoY; 90% of our full-year forecast). 

+ Stone segment: VNDVND1.8tn (+1% YoY; 85% of our full-year forecast).

+ Wood segment: VND3.8tn (+3% YoY; 92% of our full-year forecast).

+ Auto dealership: VND817bn (-16% YoY; 76% of our full-year forecast). 

+ Real estate: VND260bn (+270% YoY; 123% of our full-year forecast).

-    PBT: 477 (+1% YoY; 82% of our 2025F).

-    Q2 2025 guidance

+ Revenue: VND1.7bn (+8% YoY; 23% of our 2025F);

+ PBT: VND140bn (+1% YoY; 24% of our 2025F).

-    PTB’s latest guidance marks a downward revision of 8% for revenue and 10% for PBT compared to the company’s initial guidance. According to management, the revision reflects the impact of a 10% reciprocal tariff on US-bound exports. 

-    The company expects the tariff on wood products to be set at around 20% and expects the tariff for stone products to be broadly aligned across competing countries such as Thailand and India, among others.

2.    Q1 2025 preliminary results

-    Revenue: VND1.6tn (+ 14% YoY; 22% of our full-year forecast).

-    PBT: VND144bn (+ 32% YoY; 25% of our full-year forecast).

-    These results are broadly in line with our expectations. We foresee minimal changes to our forecasts at this stage, though we acknowledge downside risks stemming from potentially higher-than-expected US tariffs, pending a fuller review.

3.    Wood

-    PTB has secured orders for Q3 2024 and is still receiving orders for Q4 2024. Notably, US buyers are frontloading Q2 2024 shipments, urging PTB to expedite production within a 90-day window to capitalize on the temporary tariff suspension under President Donald Trump's tariff policy. This reflects urgency from buyers to mitigate cost risks amid tariff uncertainty.

-    PTB’s wood exports to the US are currently subject to a 10% tariff. In response, PTB and its industry peers are negotiating cost-sharing with customers, while PTB is continuing its strategy to diversify export markets and products. However, management acknowledges that market diversification is a long-cycle solution, given the time and complexity involved in entering new markets.

-    PTB plans to begin exporting wood pellets by Q3 2025, targeting Asia (Japan and South Korea) and Europe. Management guides for a gross profit margin of around 10% and indicates potential for a second plant should market demand gain sufficient traction.

4.    Stone

-    Natural stone: PTB has scaled down this segment in recent years due to saturation and high competitiveness. From 2025 onward, management expects improving demand, driven by Vietnam’s growing public investment with mega projects such as Long Thanh International Airport (LTA), Noi Bai International Airport’s terminal 2 expansion, and the North–South High-Speed Railway, among others. To date, PTB has delivered ~18% of its committed volume for Noi Bai T2. This project’s projected estimated revenue is VND40bn. 

-    Export stone: Management expects that final duties will be broadly aligned across competing countries such as Thailand and India, among others. which may reduce relative disadvantages for Vietnam-based exporters like PTB.

5.    Real estate

-    Phu Tai Residence: Roughly 80 apartment units remain, expected to be sold in 2025.

-    Phu Tai Central Life: Handover planned for September 30, 2025. This 320-unit apartment project is targeted to be fully sold by 2026, with 30–40% absorbed in 2025.

-    Phu Tai Dieu Tri: 15 ha, with 320 villas and townhouses, construction and sales are planned to be completed by 2026.

-    Phu Tai Van Ha: 49 ha site currently undergoing land clearance. Management targets full development completion by 2028.

6.    Dividend plan

-    2024: VND2,500/share in cash (5% yield), VND1,000 was paid as prepayment in 2024.

-    2025: VND2,000-2,500/share (4-5% yield).

7.    Management changes

-    Dismissing Mr. Le Vy from his current position of Chairman due to his age.

-    Appointing Mr. Le Van Thao to be the company’s Chairman from current position of CEO.

-    Appointing Mr. Nguyen Sy Hoe to be the CEO from the current position of Deputy CEO, replacing Mr. Le Van Thao prior to the appointment.

-    Appointing Mr. Le Anh Van to be a BOD member. He is currently serving as PTB’s Deputy CEO and Head of the Business Department.

-    This decision is primarily due to Mr. Le Vy’s age (67 years old). We view it as part of an internal restructuring aimed at maintaining PTB’s operational continuity, rather than indicating a structural shift. As such, we expect the decision to have minimal impact on PTB’s business operations and outlook.

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