- 2025-04-17T00:00:00
- Company Research
- PPC reported Q1 2025 revenue of VND1.5tn (-23% YoY) and reported NPAT-MI of VND52bn (-67% YoY). The sharp decline in reported NPAT-MI was mainly due to (1) a 17% YoY decrease in NPAT from power generation and (2) no dividend income in Q1 2025 (vs VND94bn in Q1 2024).
- The YoY decline in NPAT from power generation was primarily driven by a higher effective tax rate. The income tax expense normalized to an effective rate of 20% in Q1 2025, compared to just 1% in Q1 2024 (as PPC carried forward tax losses from Q4 2023). While the price spread expanded due to a 1% increase in ASP (which we attribute to a 23% higher fixed component of the PPA price for Pha Lai 1), the 24% drop in sales volume significantly dragged down gross profit, which fell 1% YoY.
- We see downside risk to our full-year earnings forecast, as Q1 revenue and reported NPAT are equivalent to 17% and 11% of our 2025 forecasts, respectively. The Q1 NPAT from power generation is equivalent to 15% of our 2025 forecast. The lower-than-expected NPAT is mainly due to lower-than-expected sales volume and lower-than-expected ASP, given that the industry CGM price in Q1 2025 averaged VND1,247/kWh (-17% YoY).
PPC’s Q1 2025 results
VND bn | Q1 | Q1 | YoY | % of Vietcap’s |
Sales volume (million kWh) | 1,125 | 855 | -24% | 19% |
Price spread (VND/kWh) | 239 | 261 | 9% | 80% |
ASP (VND/kWh) | 1,775 | 1,797 | 1% | 89% |
Average material cost (VND/kWh) | 1,536 | 1,536 | 0% | 91% |
Revenue | 1,996 | 1,536 | -23% | 17% |
COGS | -1,901 | -1,441 | -24% | 17% |
- In which, maintenance & other expenses | -101 | -70 | -31% | 17% |
Gross Profit | 95 | 95 | -1% | 16% |
G&A | -31 | -29 | -7% | 18% |
Operating profit (EBIT) | 64 | 66 | 3% | 15% |
Net interest income | 1 | 0 | -97% | 1% |
Dividend income | 94 | 0 | -100% | 0% |
Others | 0 | 0 | -172% | N.M. |
PBT | 159 | 65 | -59% | 11% |
Income tax exp | -2 | -13 | 529% | 15% |
Reported NPAT | 157 | 52 | -67% | 11% |
NPAT from power generation * | 63 | 52 | -17% | 15% |
Source: PPC, Vietcap (*Vietcap estimates NPAT from power generation = Reported NPAT - Dividend income)
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