PPC - Weak Q1 results on lower volume, no dividend income - Earnings Flash
  • 2025-04-17T00:00:00
  • Company Research
  • PPC reported Q1 2025 revenue of VND1.5tn (-23% YoY) and reported NPAT-MI of VND52bn (-67% YoY). The sharp decline in reported NPAT-MI was mainly due to (1) a 17% YoY decrease in NPAT from power generation and (2) no dividend income in Q1 2025 (vs VND94bn in Q1 2024).
  • The YoY decline in NPAT from power generation was primarily driven by a higher effective tax rate. The income tax expense normalized to an effective rate of 20% in Q1 2025, compared to just 1% in Q1 2024 (as PPC carried forward tax losses from Q4 2023). While the price spread expanded due to a 1% increase in ASP (which we attribute to a 23% higher fixed component of the PPA price for Pha Lai 1), the 24% drop in sales volume significantly dragged down gross profit, which fell 1% YoY.
  • We see downside risk to our full-year earnings forecast, as Q1 revenue and reported NPAT are equivalent to 17% and 11% of our 2025 forecasts, respectively. The Q1 NPAT from power generation is equivalent to 15% of our 2025 forecast. The lower-than-expected NPAT is mainly due to lower-than-expected sales volume and lower-than-expected ASP, given that the industry CGM price in Q1 2025 averaged VND1,247/kWh (-17% YoY).

PPC’s Q1 2025 results

VND bn

Q1
 2024

Q1
 2025

YoY
 %

% of Vietcap’s
 2025F

Sales volume (million kWh)

1,125

855

-24%

19%

Price spread (VND/kWh)

239

261

9%

80%

ASP (VND/kWh)

1,775

1,797

1%

89%

Average material cost (VND/kWh)

1,536

1,536

0%

91%

Revenue

1,996

1,536

-23%

17%

  COGS

-1,901

-1,441

-24%

17%

  - In which, maintenance & other expenses

-101

-70

-31%

17%

Gross Profit

95

95

-1%

16%

  G&A

-31

-29

-7%

18%

Operating profit (EBIT)

64

66

3%

15%

Net interest income

1

0

-97%

1%

Dividend income

94

0

-100%

0%

Others

0

0

-172%

N.M.

PBT

159

65

-59%

11%

  Income tax exp

-2

-13

529%

15%

Reported NPAT

157

52

-67%

11%

NPAT from power generation *

63

52

-17%

15%

Source: PPC, Vietcap (*Vietcap estimates NPAT from power generation = Reported NPAT - Dividend income)

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