PPC - Better-than-expected 9M 2022 NPAT-MI thanks to low maintenance costs

- PPC released its Q3 2022 results with revenue of VND1.2tn (USD48mn; +12% YoY) and NPAT of VND155bn (USD6mn) vs a Q3 2021 loss of VND36bn despite the company’s sales volume plunging 13% YoY due to a technical issue with a generator. We attribute the better-than-expected NPAT in Q3 2022 to lower maintenance expenses of VND60bn (USD2.5mn;-59% YoY).

- 9M 2022 results are ahead of our full-year 2022F forecast with revenue of VND3.5tn (USD143.4mn; +6% YoY) and reported NPAT of VND304bn (USD12mn; +36% YoY), which completed 61% and 105% our full-year forecasts, respectively.

- Although we expect weak Q4 2022 earnings due to no further dividend income from PPC’s associates HND and QTP, we see slight upside to our 2022F NPAT-MI forecast, pending a fuller review.