Q1 2025: Sales volume was 4.3bn kWh (+22% YoY, 22% of our 2025F forecast excl. Nhon Trach 3&4 (NT 3&4)); revenue was VND8.2tn (+31% YoY, 22% of our 2025F forecast excl. NT 3&4); reported NPAT-MI was VND445bn (+61% YoY, 34% of our total 2025F forecast); core NPAT-MI was VND599bn (2x YoY), 45% of our 2025F forecast.

We see slight upside to our 2025F reported NPAT-MI forecast (VND1,319bn, +19% YoY) due to a potential VND381bn receipt of Ca Mau O&M expenses, pending a fuller review. POW expects to receive VND381bn for O&M expenses related to Ca Mau in Q2 2025, which we currently project to be received in 2026F. We currently have a MARKET PERFORM rating for POW with a target price of VND12,900/share.

1. Despite CGM falling 17% YoY, POW’s ASP increased 6% YoY to VND1,838/kWh, partially driven by a higher committed Qc ratio of 86% vs 67% in Q1 2024.
2.  Revenue expanded 31% YoY mainly due to (1) 22% YoY sales volume growth and (2) 6% YoY higher ASPs.
3. G&A expenses jumped 2.9x YoY mainly due to (1) VND136bn of provision expenses (in which VND123bn provisioned for the remaining receivable of VND411bn insurance compensation for Vung Ang from PVI), and (2) 75% YoY higher labor costs (potentially associated with NT 3&4). POW expects to collect this insurance compensation in Q2 and/or Q3.
4. Core NPAT-MI surged 2.2x YoY, completing 28% of our 2025 core NPAT-MI forecast excl. losses from NT 3&4, mainly due to (1) revenue growth, (2) GPM expansion by 4 ppts to 10.0% (driven by sales volume and ASP growth), 3) NT2’s turnaround, and 4) stronger YoY profit from Vung Ang and hydropower.
5. Reported NPAT-MI surged 60% YoY due to YoY doubled core earnings, which outweighs VND136bn of provision expenses (vs none in Q1 2024). 

Figure 1: POW's Q1 2025 sales volume

Source: POW, Vietcap

Figure 2: POW’s Q1 2025 results

Source: POW, Vietcap (* Excluding one-off items, compensation for FX loss, and insurance)

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