- 2025-01-24T00:00:00
- Company Research
* 2024 results: Net revenue was VND37.8tn (USD1.5bn; +14% YoY) and NPAT was VND2.1tn (USD84.6mn; +7% YoY), fulfilling 99% and 106% of our respective forecasts. Net revenue tracked in line with our expectation, but NPAT came in slightly ahead of our forecast due to lower-than-expected SG&A expenses. Despite this, we see potential downside risks to our 2025F forecasts due to weaker-than-expected consumer spending reflected in PNJ’s December 2024 retail sales, pending a more comprehensive review.
* 2024 segmental performance:
- Retail sales (58.3% of total sales) remained solid with 14% YoY growth, which was primarily driven by a growing customer base alongside store expansion.
- Wholesales (10.0% of total sales) jumped 35% YoY due to mom-and-pop shops increasingly purchasing jewelry from PNJ to ensure authentic origins.
- Gold bar sales (30.8% of total sales) rose 12% YoY. Despite strong sales in 5M 2024 driven by the rally of the domestic gold price, sales declined after June 2024 due to the State-owned commercial banks' direct gold bar sales initiative.
* 2024 profitability: Blended GPM slightly decreased by 0.6 ppts YoY to 17.6%. We estimate a YoY decline in retail GPM driven by the negative impacts of challenges in raw gold material sourcing since early Q2 2024 and higher sales of lower-margin high-gold content jewelry in H1 2024 outweighing the shift in the product portfolio toward lower gold content jewelry (higher-margin but lower sales value per item) in H2 2024. Additionally, the net margin shrank by 0.4 ppts YoY to 5.6%.
* Q4 2024 results: Net revenue declined 12% YoY to VND8.6tn due to a 58% YoY decline in gold bar sales. Retail sales growth slowed to 11% YoY, reflecting weaker consumer spending and a shift toward lower gold-content jewelry, which has lower sales value per item. Meanwhile, NPAT increased 16% YoY to VND733bn, supported by SG&A expenses declining 4% YoY.
* Store expansion: In 2024, PNJ’s store count increased by 29 stores to 429 stores (in line with our projection of 30 net new stores).
PNJ’s Q4 2024 and 2024 results
VND bn | Q4 | YoY | 2024 | YoY | 2024/ |
Net revenue | 8,581 | -12% | 37,823 | 14% | 99% |
- Retail | 6,176 | 11% | 22,274 | 14% | 98% |
- Wholesales | 1,014 | 48% | 3,821 | 35% | 97% |
- Gold bar | 1,400 | -58% | 11,767 | 12% | 102% |
- Others | 78 | -51% | 344 | -44% | 97% |
Gross profit | 1,791 | 2% | 6,672 | 10% | 100% |
SG&A expenses | -913 | -4% | -4,002 | 13% | 96% |
EBIT | 878 | 10% | 2,670 | 6% | 107% |
PBT | 864 | 9% | 2,651 | 7% | 106% |
NPAT-MI | 733 | 16% | 2,115 | 7% | 106% |
Gross margin | 20.9% | 2.9 ppts | 17.6% | -0.6 ppts |
|
SG&A/net sales | 10.6% | 0.9 ppts | 10.6% | -0.1 ppts |
|
SG&A/retail sales | 14.8% | -2.1 ppts | 18.0% | -0.2 ppts |
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EBIT margin | 10.2% | 2.0 ppts | 7.1% | -0.6 ppts |
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NPAT-MI margin | 8.5% | 2.1 ppts | 5.6% | -0.4 ppts |
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Source: PNJ, Vietcap (Segment revenue is gross revenue)
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