PLX - Recurring NPAT-MI growth of 17% YoY; below forecast - Earnings Flash
  • 2025-02-03T00:00:00
  • Company Research
  • PLX reported Q4 2024 revenue of VND71tn (+3% YoY), reported NPAT-MI of VND546bn (-15% YoY), and recurring NPAT-MI of VND415bn (-31% YoY). Revenue growth was driven by a 4.8% YoY increase in sales volume, which outweighed the YoY lower average selling price following an 11% YoY decline in Brent oil prices. Gross profit grew 16% YoY, supported by higher regulated operating costs for gasoline and diesel, which rose by VND60/liter (+6%) and VND140/liter (+14%), respectively, in July 2024. However, NPAT-MI declined due to (1) an 18% YoY increase in SG&A expenses, driven by a 22% YoY rise in outsourcing and other cash costs, and (2) an 83% YoY drop in net financial income, mainly due to a net FX loss of VND122bn (compared to a net FX gain of VND138bn in Q4 2023). 

  • For full-year 2024, PLX achieved revenue of VND284tn (+4% YoY) and NPAT-MI of VND2.9tn (+2% YoY). Excluding one-off income from the PG Bank divestment, recurring NPAT-MI reached VND2.7tn (+17% YoY). This growth was driven by (1) a 2.0% YoY increase in sales volume and (2) a 0.5-ppts expansion in GPM, supported by higher regulated operating costs. These outweighed a 12% YoY increase in SG&A expenses and an 18% YoY drop in profits from joint ventures and associates. 

  • PLX’s full-year revenue, reported NPAT-MI, and recurring NPAT-MI completed 102%, 94%, and 81% of our forecasts, respectively. However, we foresee downside risk to our 2025 earnings forecast, pending further review. This is primarily due to (1) lower-than-expected sales volume and GPM, (2) higher-than-expected SG&A expenses, and (3) a delay in our assumption for a one-off loss of VND300bn from the Petrolimex Laos divestment, which was not completed in 2024 and may shift to 2025.  

Figure 1: PLX’s 2024 results  

VND bn 

Q4 2023 

Q4  

2024 

YoY 

2023 

2024 

YoY 

% of Vietcap’s 2024F 

Brent oil price (USD/bbl) * 

83 

74 

-11% 

82 

80 

-3% 

100% 

Gasoline price (VND/liter) * 

21,997 

19,663 

-11% 

21,995 

21,373 

-3% 

113% 

Diesel price (VND/liter) * 

21,190 

18,374 

-13% 

20,526 

19,602 

-4% 

105% 

Domestic sales volume (mn m3) 

2.57 

2.69 

4.8% 

10.32 

10.52 

2.0% 

98% 

Revenue 

68,656 

71,038 

3% 

273,979 

284,028 

4% 

102% 

Gross profit 

3,982 

4,604 

16% 

15,264 

17,315 

13% 

98% 

Selling expense 

-3,252 

-3,894 

20% 

-12,140 

-13,531 

11% 

102% 

G&A expense 

-299 

-282 

-6% 

-949 

-1,037 

9% 

102% 

Operating profit 

431 

428 

-1% 

2,175 

2,748 

26% 

83% 

Financial income 

606 

295 

-51% 

2,743 

1,635 

-40% 

86% 

Financial expenses 

-357 

-251 

-30% 

-1,723 

-1,193 

-31% 

93% 

   Interest expenses 

-214 

-61 

-71% 

-899 

-569 

-37% 

72% 

Profit/(loss) from JVs, associates 

119 

125 

6% 

624 

511 

-18% 

101% 

PBT 

849 

760 

-10% 

3,947 

3,960 

0% 

93% 

Income tax 

-86 

-148 

73% 

-880 

-797 

-9% 

93% 

Reported NPAT-MI 

641 

546 

-15% 

2,827 

2,890 

2% 

94% 

Recurring NPAT-MI 

600 

415 

-31% 

2,300 

2,683 

17% 

81% 

 

 

 

Δ ppts 

 

 

Δ ppts 

 

Gross profit margin % 

5.8% 

6.5% 

+0.7 

5.6% 

6.1% 

+0.5 

 

Sales & marketing % sales 

4.7% 

5.5% 

+0.7 

4.4% 

4.8% 

+0.3 

 

General admin % sales 

0.4% 

0.4% 

-0.0 

0.3% 

0.4% 

+0.0 

 

EBIT Margin 

0.6% 

0.6% 

-0.0 

0.8% 

1.0% 

+0.2 

 

NPAT-MI margin 

0.9% 

0.8% 

-0.2 

1.0% 

1.0% 

-0.0 

 

Core NPAT-MI margin 

0.9% 

0.8% 

-0.1 

0.8% 

1.0% 

+0.2 

 

Source: PLX, Vietcap (*average prices) 

Figure 2: Platts Singapore price movement (reference point for Vietnamese petroleum retail prices), excluding the impact of the petroleum stabilization fund (USD/bbl) 

 

Source: Ministry of Industry and Trade, Vietcap (Data as of January 25, 2025) 

Figure 3: Vietnamese E5 gasoline and diesel retail prices, including the impact of the petroleum stabilization fund (VND/liter) 

 

Source: PLX, Vietcap (Data as of January 25, 2025) 

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