- We lower our target price (TP) for PLX by 13% to VND42,800/share but maintain a BUY rating, as PLX’s share price has dropped 16% over the past three months. Our TP revision reflects (1) a 16% cut in our aggregate 2025–2029F NPAT-MI forecast (with respective reductions of -34%/-24%/-22%/-11%/-10% for 2025–2029F), which outweighs (2) the positive impact of rolling our TP horizon to mid-2026.

- Our lower aggregate NPAT-MI forecast mainly reflects: (1) our 0.5% reduction in domestic sales volume after the 2024 audit; (2) a 2.6% reduction in gross profit per liter due to weak Q1 2025 results and a lower Brent oil price forecast (see our Oil & Gas Sector Update, April 25, 2025); and (3) a 1.8% increase in aggregate SG&A expenses following high expenses in Q1 2025.

- We forecast respective 2025 reported/core NPAT-MI to decline 24%/16% YoY, mainly due to: (1) a 5% drop in gross profit per liter, (2) a VND687bn inventory provision from a 19% Brent oil price decline YoY, and (3) our assumption of a VND300bn one-off loss from the Petrolimex Laos divestment. These factors outweigh (4) a 6.0% rise in domestic petroleum sales volume and (5) a 20% increase in petrochemical gross profit from PLC’s turnaround. 

- We project a 19% CAGR in reported EPS for 2024-27F, driven by a volume growth CAGR of 5%, and GPM improving to 7.8% in 2026F vs the pre-COVID-19 pandemic average of 8.6%.

- PLX appears attractive with average 2025F/26F P/Es of 18.0x (implied three-year PEG of 0.9x).

- Upside catalysts: Share capital increase via stock dividend, PLC’s divestment gain (page 19).

- Downside risk: Volatile oil prices.

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